Inter vs Udinese: Champions Seek Redemption at San Siro

Inter were stung in Madrid, but they did not look broken. Six days on from a narrow 2-1 defeat at the Bernabéu, the defending Serie A champions walk back into the San Siro glare on Monday night, with Udinese the latest visitors trying to survive the storm. Kick-off is 19:45 BST on Matchday 4 of the 2026/27 season.

Cristian Chivu’s side have started their title defence with intent. Three league games, three wins. A 4-1 dismantling of Monza, a professional job away at Cagliari, and a breathless 3-2 victory over Napoli that showed the other side of a champion: the ability to suffer, bend, and still come out on top.

Those are the wins that build Scudetto campaigns. Inter have already shown they can grind when the game opens up and the margins tighten.

They were less ruthless in Europe. At Real Madrid, an error from goalkeeper Josep Martínez proved costly in a 2-1 defeat in their first league-phase match of the 2026/27 UCL. Chivu did not flinch in public, backing his keeper after the slip in Spain. The scrutiny remains, though, and Udinese will know exactly where the nerves might be.

Inter heavy favourites, but Udinese carry a threat

On paper, this is Inter’s game to lose. The champions have won eight of the last 10 meetings between these sides, with no draws in that run. A straight home win is trading at around an 80% implied probability.

Yet Udinese have history here. They shocked Inter 2-1 at the San Siro around this stage last season and arrive with four points from their opening three Serie A matches. They drew 1-1 with high-flying Como, won at Monza, and then led Lazio at home before injuries ripped up their plan in a 2-1 defeat.

Kosta Runjaić’s team do not often collapse. They have not lost by more than a single goal in the league this season. Their approach is clear: sit deep, absorb, counter. That naturally keeps scorelines tight and makes heavy defeats rare.

The injury list complicates things. Jakub Piotrowski and Oumar Solet both went off in the first half against Lazio and are doubts for Monday. Keinan Davis was withdrawn early to manage his workload. Nicolò Zaniolo and Giorgi Chakvetadze are already ruled out. For a side that leans on structure and discipline, losing pillars like Solet at the back is a major blow.

Even so, Udinese tend to punch back. They have scored in five of their last nine visits to Inter and found the net in all three league games this season. Lazio needed two goals to beat them. Como could not keep them out. Monza fell at home.

Inter, for all their quality, have not been watertight either. Napoli scored twice at the San Siro. Real Madrid did the same at the Bernabéu. Martínez’s error in Spain only sharpens the sense that Udinese can at least test the champions.

Predicted score: Inter edge it in a live contest

The expectation is that Inter respond, and respond hard. They have had almost a full week to reset after the trip to Madrid, and Chivu’s squad is built for the grind of a long season.

A 2-1 home win feels like the likeliest script: Inter’s attacking quality telling, Udinese’s counter-punch landing once but not enough. Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram are well-placed to get on the scoresheet for the hosts, with Bayo the standout threat for the visitors.

Probable lineups

Inter Milan expected XI:

• J. Martínez; Bisseck, Akanji, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Çalhanoğlu, Sucic, Dimarco; Thuram, L. Martinez.

Udinese expected XI:

• Okoye; Kristensen, Kabasele, Abankwah; Ehizibue, Ekkelenkamp, Karlström, Atta, Kamara; Davis, Bayo.

Where the value lies

The market sees an Inter win as almost inevitable. The more interesting angles sit around how Udinese lose — or whether they can keep this close again.

• Inter to win and both teams to score Udinese have enough about them to nick a goal, especially against an Inter side that has already conceded multiple times to Napoli and Real Madrid. Inter, though, have too many weapons and too much momentum in the league.
• With Inter having won eight of the last 10 meetings and Udinese’s recent scoring record at San Siro, backing Inter to win and both teams to score at odds of 2.80 looks a smarter play than a straight home win. The implied probability of 35.7% for that combination beats the raw home price.
• Udinese +2 (Handicap 3-way) Runjaić’s side rarely get blown away. They sit deep, break in numbers, and manage games well enough to avoid being torn apart. Their only defeat this season was that 2-1 reverse to Lazio. They also beat Inter 2-1 at San Siro last year.
• Inter’s own 3-2 win over Napoli underlines how these matches can tighten late on. Add in the potential physical and mental hangover from Madrid and the case grows for Udinese keeping the margin narrow.
• Udinese +2 on the 3-way handicap at odds of 2.10 lands if Udinese win, draw or lose by a single goal. Given their early-season profile, that line looks generous.
• Lautaro Martínez anytime goalscorer Lautaro’s numbers scream that a bigger haul is coming. Two goals from 3.1 expected goals is a small underperformance rather than a warning sign. His 1.18 xG per 90 is elite territory, the output of a striker constantly arriving in the right zones.
• He hit 17 league goals last season and 22 in all competitions. Now he faces an Udinese defence likely missing Solet, whose absence badly disrupted their shape against Lazio.
• At San Siro, with Inter expected to pin Udinese back for long spells, Lautaro should see a steady stream of chances. At odds of 1.75 — an implied probability of 57.1% — backing him to score at any time looks well-balanced.

Key bets for Inter vs Udinese

• Inter to win and both teams to score – 2.80
• Udinese +2 (Handicap 3-way) – 2.10
• Lautaro Martínez anytime goalscorer – 1.75

Inter were stunned by Udinese in Milan last season. This time, they return from Madrid wounded but sharper, chasing a fourth straight league win. Udinese will try to drag them into another awkward, nervy contest. The question is simple: can the champions be dragged down to their level again, or will they show why the Scudetto still runs through the blue and black of San Siro?