Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Atalanta host Bologna at New Balance Arena in Bergamo on 31 August 2026 in the second round of the new Serie A campaign. The home side started strongly with a 2-1 victory and will look to build early momentum in front of their own fans, while Bologna arrive still searching for their first points after opening with a narrow defeat.

The early standings underline what is at stake. Atalanta sit 6th with 3 points and a positive goal difference, aiming to consolidate their place in the upper reaches of the table. Bologna are down in 16th after a 0-1 home loss, and another defeat here would immediately put them under pressure in the battle for mid-table safety.

Historically this has been a competitive fixture, with both sides trading wins in Bergamo and Bologna over recent seasons. With Atalanta’s attacking talents like Giacomo Raspadori and Nikola Krstović already on the scoresheet this term, and Bologna’s physical midfielders such as Nicolò Cambiaghi and Oussama El Azzouzi setting the tone, this promises to be a tactical and physical Serie A encounter.

Atalanta vs Bologna Key Stats

• Atalanta have 3 points from 1 match, scoring 2 goals and conceding 1, and are 6th in Serie A.
• The last meeting in Bergamo on 17 May 2026 ended Atalanta 0-1 Bologna in Serie A.
• Across their 1 league match this season, Atalanta average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Bologna average 0.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.

Atalanta vs Bologna — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 6 vs 16
• Points: 3 vs 0
• Goals For: 2 vs 0
• Goals Against: 1 vs 1
• Clean Sheets: 0 vs 0

After one round, Atalanta have made the more convincing start. They have already found the net twice and shown they can edge tight games, winning 2-1 at home. Their early numbers reflect a proactive side: 2 goals for, 1 against and a winning streak of one match in both standings and wider statistics.

Bologna, by contrast, began with a 0-1 home defeat. They have yet to score and have already failed to find the net once in their single outing. While the sample size is tiny, it does underline a key dynamic heading into Bergamo: Atalanta are already in scoring rhythm, while Bologna must quickly solve their attacking issues away from home.

Atalanta vs Bologna Key Matchups

Giacomo Raspadori vs Nicolò Cambiaghi

Giacomo Raspadori has started the new Serie A season in excellent form for Atalanta. In his first appearance he played 82 minutes, scored 1 goal and earned an impressive 8.3 rating. He was clinical, hitting the target with his only shot, and also contributed in build-up with 17 passes at 94% accuracy, plus strong defensive work with 3 tackles and 2 interceptions and 6 duels won out of 8. That all-round profile makes him a constant threat between the lines and in the box.

For Bologna, Nicolò Cambiaghi has been one of the most involved players so far. In his 60 minutes, he made 4 tackles and 1 interception, and contested 16 duels, winning 9. He also completed his only dribble attempt and drew 4 fouls, showing how he can carry the ball and provoke contact. However, he picked up 1 yellow card and committed 4 fouls, underlining his aggressive style. Cambiaghi’s ability to press and disrupt will be tested against Raspadori’s movement and link play; if he cannot contain the Atalanta forward without conceding dangerous fouls, Bologna could be in trouble around their box.

Nikola Krstović vs Oussama El Azzouzi

Nikola Krstović has quickly made an impact for Atalanta off the bench. In just 30 minutes of action he scored 1 goal from 3 shots (2 on target) and posted a solid 7.3 rating. He also contributed 11 passes at 81% accuracy and created 1 key pass, underlining that he is more than just a penalty-box finisher. His presence gives Atalanta a potent option either as a starter or impact substitute, especially against tiring defences.

Oussama El Azzouzi has been a key figure in Bologna’s midfield. Across 79 minutes he completed 54 passes at 94% accuracy and produced 1 key pass, showing composure in possession. Defensively he added 1 tackle, 1 block and 1 interception, plus 3 duels won out of 5, and drew 2 fouls. His job in Bergamo will be to screen the back line and cut off supply into Krstović and the other Atalanta forwards. If El Azzouzi can maintain that passing accuracy while limiting turnovers, Bologna may be able to slow Atalanta’s attacks; if he is overrun, Krstović’s movement between the lines could prove decisive.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This has been a finely balanced fixture in recent seasons, with both teams enjoying victories home and away across Serie A and Coppa Italia. Matches are often tight, with several one-goal margins and clean sheets on both sides.

• 17 May 2026: Atalanta 0-1 Bologna (Serie A)
• 07 January 2026: Bologna 0-2 Atalanta (Serie A)
• 13 April 2025: Atalanta 2-0 Bologna (Serie A)
• 04 February 2025: Atalanta 0-1 Bologna (Coppa Italia)
• 28 September 2024: Bologna 1-1 Atalanta (Serie A)

Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction

All indicators point towards a slight but clear edge for Atalanta. They come into this match with a win already on the board, an attack that has produced 2 goals in 1 game, and a strong home record in the recent head-to-head, including a 2-0 win in April 2025. Their comparison indices are heavily in their favour in form and attack, and they have more proven firepower in Raspadori and Krstović.

Bologna’s defensive structure has generally been respectable — they conceded only once in their opener and their defensive comparison index is on par with Atalanta — but their lack of goals is a concern. The predictions give Atalanta a 45% chance of victory, with a 45% chance of a draw and just 10% for a Bologna win. That suggests a match where the home side control territory and chances, but where Bologna’s defensive resilience could keep the scoreline tight.

Predicted Score: Atalanta 2-1 Bologna

Atalanta Recent Form

Atalanta have started Serie A with a win, reflected by their current form of one victory from one match. They have scored 2 goals and conceded 1, showing both attacking threat and a small degree of defensive vulnerability. Their last-five record in the predictions data is perfect in terms of results, and their attacking index is very strong, suggesting confidence and momentum.

Bologna Recent Form

Bologna’s recent form is the opposite: one defeat from one match in the new campaign. They have yet to score and have conceded once, with their last-five form rating at 0% and an attacking index that highlights their early struggles in front of goal. Defensively, however, they have not been overrun, and their defensive index is comparable to Atalanta’s, pointing to a side that can be organised but needs more cutting edge.

Atalanta Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Carnesecchi or M. Sportiello; Defenders: M. Bakker, I. Hien, G. Scalvini, R. Bellanova or D. Zappacosta; Midfielders: Éderson, G. Gaetano, M. de Roon, L. Samardžić; Forwards: G. Raspadori, N. Krstović, G. Scamacca or C. De Ketelaere.

Atalanta have a deep squad with several options in each line. They have already used a 4-3-3 shape this season, and that system suits their wealth of attacking players. G. Gaetano brings creativity and work rate from midfield, while Raspadori and Krstović provide a blend of movement, finishing and link play. With no reported absences, Gian Piero Gasperini can rotate between forwards like Scamacca, De Ketelaere and Krstović depending on game state, keeping the front line fresh and dangerous.

Bologna Possible Starting Lineup

GK: Ł. Skorupski; Defenders: Juan Miranda, T. Heggem, M. Vitík, E. Holm or N. Casale; Midfielders: O. El Azzouzi, N. Moro, T. Pobega, L. Ferguson; Attackers: N. Cambiaghi, F. Bernardeschi, A. Dovbyk or R. Orsolini.

Bologna have typically lined up in a 4-2-3-1 structure this season, with El Azzouzi anchoring midfield and providing passing stability. Cambiaghi’s energy and duels in wide areas are crucial for pressing and transitions, while experienced attackers like Bernardeschi and Orsolini can supply crosses and shots from distance. The presence of A. Dovbyk as a central striker gives Bologna a physical focal point, but they must improve their chance creation to exploit his presence.

Atalanta Team News

No significant absences reported.

Bologna Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Atalanta:

• None reported.

Bologna:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Atalanta vs Bologna

Exactly 3 distinct betting angles stand out based on current form, stats and prices.

• Result Tip: Back Atalanta to win. They have started with a victory, boast stronger attacking numbers (2 goals in 1 game versus Bologna’s 0) and are favoured by the prediction probabilities (45% home win vs 10% away). The market prices Atalanta between 1.80 and 1.92, implying roughly a 52–56% chance of victory, which aligns with their home advantage and recent head-to-head record in Bergamo.
• Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. The prediction advice explicitly leans to Atalanta combined with under 3.5 goals, and both teams’ early-season matches have been low-scoring: Atalanta 2-1, Bologna 0-1. With Bologna’s attack yet to click and their defence generally compact, a controlled home win in a match with 2–3 goals looks likely. Many match-winner odds cluster around 1.85–1.92 for Atalanta; under-goals markets will typically be shorter but still offer reasonable value in multiples.
• Value Tip: Atalanta to win by exactly one goal (or Atalanta -1 handicap alternatives where available). Recent head-to-heads in Bergamo have often been tight: 0-1, 2-0, 0-1, 2-0 and 1-2 scorelines underline narrow margins. With Bologna’s defensive metrics solid and Atalanta’s attack strong but not yet rampant, a 1-goal home victory such as 2-1 or 1-0 fits both the statistical profile and the predicted 2-1 scoreline. Given the main 1X2 prices (home 1.80–1.92, draw around 3.50–3.80, away 3.50–4.30), correct-score or margin markets are where extra value is likely to be found.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.