Premier League 2026/27: Who's Most Likely to Be the Next Manager Sacked?

As the 2026/27 Premier League season approaches, the odds on which manager might be the first to lose their job reveal a mix of expectation and pressure across the league. Nine clubs will start with new managers, and Eddie Howe’s recent departure from Newcastle is a reminder that changes don’t always come from poor results.

"Promoted managers dominate the market, but the next Premier League manager sacked may not be the most obvious choice..."

The relegation odds add insight here; teams newly promoted or expected to struggle often have little margin for error early in the season.

Top Contenders for Early Dismissal

• Sergej Jakirovic – Odds: 1/1 (Decimal: 2.00) – Implied Probability: 50.0%
• Frank Lampard – Odds: 3/1 (Decimal: 4.00) – Implied Probability: 25.0%
• Gary O’Neil – Odds: 4/1 (Decimal: 5.00) – Implied Probability: 20.0%
• Roberto De Zerbi – Odds: 8/1 (Decimal: 9.00) – Implied Probability: 11.1%

These odds, compiled by Oddspedia, are theoretical since no live bookmaker markets are available yet.

Recent Managerial Changes

• Eddie Howe, Newcastle United – July 2026
• Vitor Pereira, Nottingham Forest – July 2026
• Arne Slot, Liverpool – June 2026
• Pep Guardiola, Manchester City – May 2026
• Scott Parker, Burnley – April 2026
• Liam Rosenior, Chelsea – April 2026
• Igor Tudor, Tottenham – March 2026
• Sean Dyche, Nottingham Forest – February 2026
• Thomas Frank, Tottenham – February 2026
• Ruben Amorim, Manchester United – January 2026

Who’s Most at Risk?

Sergej Jakirovic tops the list after leading Hull City back to the Premier League. Though his promotion secured his place in club history, Hull faces a tough season as favorites for relegation. Operating on a tight budget means any injuries or bad runs could put him under serious pressure, despite initial patience from the club.

Frank Lampard stands second. Having returned Coventry City to the top flight and earned a contract through 2029, he has more security than many promoted-side managers. Still, Coventry’s struggle to stay clear of the bottom could strain his position if the team fails to compete well.

Gary O’Neil, now at Ipswich Town, faces a survival battle. Ipswich has momentum but Premier League survival is a different challenge. Without the established goodwill some managers enjoy, O’Neil could quickly feel pressure if results don’t improve.

Roberto De Zerbi starts his first full season with Tottenham amid heavy summer spending. Expectations for European qualification rise, so while a settling-in period is usual, a poor start might shake the confidence around him.

Longshot Worth Watching

Keith Andrews at Brentford offers an intriguing outsider bet at 16/1. After a strong debut season, expectations have grown. Though unlikely to face immediate pressure, a rocky start could change that fast.

Extended Odds for Next Manager to Be Sacked

• Sergej Jakirovic: 1/1 (2.00), 50.0%
• Frank Lampard: 3/1 (4.00), 25.0%
• Gary O’Neil: 4/1 (5.00), 20.0%
• Roberto De Zerbi: 8/1 (9.00), 11.1%
• Oliver Glasner: 12/1 (13.00), 7.7%
• Daniel Farke: 14/1 (15.00), 6.7%
• Keith Andrews: 16/1 (17.00), 5.9%
• Regis Le Bris: 20/1 (21.00), 4.8%
• Michael Carrick: 25/1 (26.00), 3.8%
• Fabian Hurzeler: 33/1 (34.00), 2.9%
• Marco Silva: 40/1 (41.00), 2.4%
• Enzo Maresca: 50/1 (51.00), 2.0%
• Unai Emery: 66/1 (67.00), 1.5%
• David Moyes: 80/1 (81.00), 1.2%
• Mikel Arteta: 200/1 (201.00), 0.5%

Betting Tips for the Premier League Sack Market

• Watch Promoted Managers: Newly promoted clubs tend to be the first where managers lose their jobs if things go wrong early.
• Track Spending and Performance: Managers at clubs that spent heavily but fail to show progress may find themselves under pressure quickly.
• Check Fixture Difficulty: Tough early games might buy a manager time, but failure against direct rivals usually escalates risk.
• Follow Club Sentiment: Board confidence and fan reactions can hint at looming changes.
• Consider Contract Length and Experience: Short contracts or inexperienced managers might be less protected when results dip.

Using betting calculators and comparing odds across top football betting sites can help maximize value when placing wagers on these markets.

Common Questions on EPL Manager Sacking Odds

• How do the odds work? They reflect who bookmakers think will be the first to leave based on team form, expectations, and stability.
• Who is most likely to go? Managers of promoted teams and those with poor starts often rank highest.
• Why are promoted managers favorites? They usually have smaller budgets and less squad depth, making survival tougher.
• What factors affect sackings? Results, performances, morale, injuries, transfers, and ownership patience all play roles.
• Where to find latest odds? Oddspedia tracks these markets when bookmakers release them, especially during the season.
• Which bookmakers offer these bets? Big names like bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, and Paddy Power often run these markets.
• Other relevant betting markets? Premier League winner, top four finish, relegation, top scorer, and player awards.