Portugal vs Croatia: World Cup Round of 32 Preview

Portugal and Croatia meet at BMO Field in Toronto in a World Cup Round of 32 tie that promises fine margins. Portugal arrive from Group K in strong shape, ranked 2nd with 5 points and a +5 goal difference, and an unbeaten form line of DWD. Croatia also finished 2nd in Group L, collecting 6 points from three games with a perfectly balanced goal record of 5 scored and 5 conceded, their form reading WWL.

Stats suggest Portugal have been more impressive at this tournament, especially in attack. They have scored 6 goals in 3 matches, averaging 3.0 per game at “home”, while conceding only once. Croatia’s 5 goals in 3 fixtures show threat, but their 5 conceded underline defensive vulnerability, particularly away, where they allow 2.0 goals on average.

The recent competitive head-to-head record slightly favours Portugal. In the 2024 UEFA Nations League, Portugal beat Croatia 2-1 in Lisbon, while the reverse fixture in Split ended 1-1. In 2020, Portugal also won 4-1 at home and 3-2 away in Split.

Form points to a tight knockout contest, but Portugal’s superior defensive record and stronger recent results against Croatia make them slight favourites to progress.