Levante vs Mallorca: High-Stakes Relegation Battle

Survival is on the line at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in Valencia on 17 May 2026, as Levante and Mallorca walk out knowing that one of them could yet be dragged through the trapdoor. With both sides locked on 39 points and separated only by goal difference, this late-spring evening threatens to define the entire year for a Levante side currently in the relegation places and a Mallorca team hovering just above the drop.

Season Context

Levante arrive in 18th place with 39 points from 36 matches, their campaign defined by volatility at both ends of the pitch (44 goals scored, 59 conceded). Ten wins, nine draws and 17 defeats have left them in the “Relegation - LaLiga2” zone, and only a strong finish can rescue a defence that has leaked heavily (goal difference -15) despite a capable attack.

Mallorca sit one rung above in 17th, also on 39 points from 36 games but with a slightly healthier goal difference (-11) thanks to 44 goals scored and 55 conceded. Their record mirrors Levante’s — 10 wins, nine draws, 17 losses — but without a formal relegation tag attached, they are still in danger if results turn, making this head-to-head a high-stakes six-pointer.

Form & Momentum

Levante’s recent league form line of “WWLDW” signals a late surge (three wins in five) built on a sharper edge in both boxes (44 goals from 36 games, 1.2 per match, and 59 conceded, 1.6 per match). That uptick suggests a team rediscovering belief after a long, uneven year, with enough attacking punch to trouble anyone but still carrying defensive risk (negative goal difference -15).

Mallorca, by contrast, come in with the more fragile sequence “LDWLD”, a run that underlines their inconsistency (10 wins, nine draws, 17 defeats overall) and a defence that has been only slightly tighter than Levante’s (55 goals conceded from 36 games, 1.5 per match). Their attack has matched Levante’s output over the year (44 goals in 36, 1.2 per game), but the stuttering recent pattern hints at a side struggling to turn performances into security.

Head-to-Head Patterns

The recent history between these two clubs offers no clear psychological comfort. On 26 October 2025, they shared the points in a 1-1 draw at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix (La Liga, season 2025, October 2025), a balanced contest that reflected their similar profiles. Earlier in this decade, Levante enjoyed a home boost on 8 January 2022 with a 2-0 victory at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia (La Liga, season 2021, January 2022), a reminder that this ground has been kind to the hosts in the past. In the same league campaign, Mallorca had struck first blood on 2 October 2021 with a 1-0 home win at Iberostar Estadi (La Liga, season 2021, October 2021), underlining how narrow the margins have been in this matchup.

Tactical Preview

Levante’s season numbers paint the picture of a front-foot side whose ambition has often left them exposed. With 44 goals from 36 matches (1.2 per game) and 59 conceded (1.6 per game), they lean into attacking football and accept the risks. Their most used setups — 4-2-3-1 (11 matches), 4-4-2 (10 matches) and 4-1-4-1 (8 matches) — suggest a preference for a back four, double pivot and either a No.10 or wide-oriented midfield line. The 4-2-3-1 allows creative midfielders like Pablo Martínez and Brugui to link with forwards such as José Luis Morales and Iván Romero, while the full-backs, including Manu Sánchez and J. Toljan, are encouraged to push high, which helps explain both the 44 goals scored and the 59 conceded (open, stretched games).

Defensively, Levante’s numbers confirm vulnerability (59 goals shipped, goal difference -15), but eight clean sheets across home and away show they can shut teams down when the structure holds. The presence of multiple centre-backs in the squad — Dela, Unai Elgezabal, A. Matturro and M. Moreno — allows flexibility between a flat back four and occasional 5-4-1 (three uses), a switch they may consider to manage Mallorca’s aerial threat and protect a back line that has been under strain all year.

Mallorca bring a more balanced but still fragile profile into the game. They, too, have scored 44 goals in 36 matches (1.2 per game) but have conceded slightly fewer than Levante (55, or 1.5 per game), hinting at a marginally sturdier rearguard. Their tactical identity is anchored in the 4-2-3-1 (20 matches), with alternative shapes like 4-3-1-2 (7 matches) and 5-3-2 (4 matches) used to adjust to opponents. In the 4-2-3-1, Samú Costa operates as a combative midfielder (62 tackles and 25 interceptions) who sets the tone in the centre of the pitch, while Pablo Maffeo’s work as a defender (60 tackles and 33 interceptions) underlines Mallorca’s reliance on aggressive full-back play.

In attack, Mallorca lean heavily on V. Muriqi, whose 22 league goals and 1 assist from 34 appearances make him the clear reference point. V. Muriqi’s volume of shots (85 total, 47 on target) and physical presence in duels (416 contested, 214 won) mean Mallorca can go direct when needed, especially if they switch into a 4-3-1-2 or 5-3-2 to load the box. Supporting attackers like T. Asano and Zito Luvumbo, plus creators such as Darder and Pablo Torre, give them options between the lines, but their away record in the standings (2 wins, 3 draws, 13 defeats, 16 scored and 34 conceded) points to a side that often struggles to reproduce home intensity on the road.

Given Levante’s recent form upswing (WWLDW) and Mallorca’s more mixed run (LDWLD), the tactical battle may hinge on who controls central midfield. If Levante’s double pivot can resist Samú Costa’s pressure and find their advanced midfielders early, the hosts’ attacking structure and home familiarity at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia could tilt the game. Mallorca, meanwhile, will likely look to compact their lines, trust their slightly better defensive record (55 conceded versus 59) and rely on V. Muriqi’s penalty-box efficiency to punish any defensive lapses.

Statistical Snapshot

• Competition: La Liga, season 2025 — 17 May 2026.
• Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia.
• Prediction: Win or draw — Double chance : Levante or draw.
• Win Probabilities: Home 45% / Draw 45% / Away 10%.
• Model: Levante 55.3% — Mallorca 44.7%.

Betting Verdict

The prediction model leans strongly towards the hosts avoiding defeat, with Levante given a combined 90% chance of win-or-draw and rated at 55.3% on the overall comparison. With home odds clustered around 2.10–2.20 and the draw roughly between 3.25 and 3.45, the “Double chance : Levante or draw” angle looks well aligned with both the market and the data. Levante’s stronger recent form (WWLDW) and their positive home memory in this fixture in January 2022, set against Mallorca’s fragile away profile (16 goals scored and 34 conceded on the road), support a conservative, safety-first stance. In a high-pressure relegation battle where a single mistake could decide the year, backing Levante not to lose appears the most defensible position.