Kylian Mbappé's Ballon d'Or Drought and Messi's Resurgence

Kylian Mbappé arrived in North America looking every inch the Real Madrid Galáctico ready to seize the Ballon d’Or stage for himself. Eight goals, a semi-final run with France, and long spells where he looked utterly unplayable seemed to push him right into the heart of the debate.

Then Spain shut the door on him. Again, the biggest prize slipped just out of reach.

At club level, the picture is no kinder. The 2025-26 season ended with Real Madrid completing a second straight campaign without a major trophy. For a player of Mbappé’s stature, the numbers are there, the highlights reel is overflowing, but the medals – the ones that shape Ballon d’Or voting – are missing.

And that is where the conversation tilts back, almost inevitably, towards Lionel Messi.

Messi, again, at the centre of the storm

At 39, Messi has dragged Argentina to yet another World Cup final, matching Mbappé’s tally of eight goals at the tournament and once more placing himself at the heart of the global game. The Albiceleste are one win away from defending the crown they lifted in Qatar in 2022. One more decisive performance against Spain, and a ninth Golden Ball could easily be steered in his direction.

Jeremie Aliadière, watching this power shift unfold, sees the pattern clearly. Speaking to GOAL in association with Betinia NJ, the former France international did not hesitate when asked if Mbappé is likely to see his Ballon d’Or drought continue.

“Yeah, I think so,” he said. In his eyes, Mbappé’s case crumbles on one key point: trophies. “I think if he's had a fantastic year in terms of winning something with Real Madrid, then he probably could still be in the running but without winning anything with Madrid…”

Aliadière is not questioning the forward’s output. Quite the opposite. “Even if on a personal level, I thought he had a great season, scored a ridiculous amount of goals and carried the team for most part of the season. So, individually, he's had a fantastic season but, unfortunately, without winning any trophies we know the rules to be a Ballon d'Or. You've got to win, Champions League or World Cup or Euros.”

That is the brutal arithmetic at this level. Goals alone do not carry the vote. The shine has to come with silverware.

Kane, Messi and the weight of winning

Mbappé is not the only superstar paying the price. Harry Kane, who also shouldered the burden for club and country, finds himself in the same boat. “It's a shame because I thought Harry Kane would have had a good shot if England went all the way as well, but same for him,” Aliadière added.

Instead, the spotlight swings back to Argentina. “I think it’ll probably be one of Argentina,” Aliadière said. If Messi finishes the job again, the narrative almost writes itself: “Messi, if he wins it again, I think everybody's just going to be mesmerised by the age and what he's produced at the World Cup and forget that he plays in MLS for Inter Miami.”

That last line cuts to the heart of the paradox. Messi is operating in MLS, a league routinely dismissed in Ballon d’Or debates, yet he has made that detail feel almost irrelevant.

MLS titles, MVP form, and a World Cup charge

The 2025 campaign in North America has been another reminder of his enduring class. Messi lifted the MLS Cup with Inter Miami and added MVP honours, dominating a league that has struggled to contain him. The pace may have dipped slightly, but the influence has not. He still dictates games, still bends them to his will.

With Argentina, the stakes and the intensity rise, and so does he. England felt that in Atlanta, where Messi helped knock them out in a dramatic semi-final that added fresh chapters to an already absurdly long legend. Another Golden Ball at the World Cup? Nobody inside the game is dismissing the idea.

Former MLS star and World Cup winner Kleberson has seen enough to be convinced. Speaking to GOAL about Messi’s chances of another Ballon d’Or, he could only marvel. “Wow! That guy never stops! Argentina has more chance of winning the World Cup with Messi than any other country, just because Messi is still playing at a good level.”

Ronaldo comparison and a changing era

The comparison with Cristiano Ronaldo, his eternal rival, now feels starker than ever. “It’s different from Ronaldo,” Kleberson said. “He is still playing at a level, but the players around Ronaldo, it’s not the same as Messi has with Argentina. It’s purity. What Portuguese players have and Argentine players have is completely different. That’s why Messi has a lot of chance.”

In other words, Messi is not just benefiting from his own brilliance; he is plugged into a national side built to amplify it. Ronaldo, by contrast, no longer has that same perfect storm around him. The gap in collective strength has widened, and so has the space for Messi to dominate the international stage.

Kleberson is unequivocal about the consequences if Argentina go all the way again. “If he goes and wins the World Cup, 100 per cent he’s going to be up to win the Ballon d’Or again. He’s brilliant. Even Brazilian players and fans look at him and want to see good players win the Ballon d’Or and the World Cup - players that are a joy to see play. Messi is one of those.”

That last point is telling. When Brazilian fans and former stars openly back an Argentine for football’s top individual prize, you know you are dealing with something beyond rivalry. You are dealing with a player whose talent has broken through the usual tribal lines.

So as Mbappé and Kane count the cost of seasons heavy on goals but light on trophies, Messi, at 39, stands once more on the brink of the game’s highest individual honour. If he lifts another World Cup, and then a ninth Ballon d’Or, the question will not be whether he has outpaced his rivals.

It will be how anyone, now or in the future, is supposed to catch him.