CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: UEFA Europa League Showdown

On 13 August 2026, under the lights of the National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia, CSKA Sofia return home with a three-goal cushion and a chance to finish the job against Maccabi Tel Aviv in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round. The Bulgarians are protecting both pride and momentum after a flawless start to their continental campaign, while the Israelis arrive needing something close to a miracle to overturn a 0-3 first-leg defeat and keep their European season alive.

Season Context

For CSKA Sofia, this qualifying campaign has been close to perfect so far: across 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 9 goals and conceding only 3. That control at both ends underlines a side that has quickly adapted to the demands of knockout qualifying, with each step bringing them closer to the Europa League group stage and the financial and sporting boost that comes with it.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s numbers are more volatile but still competitive: in 3 matches they have 2 wins and 1 loss, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. A 0-5 away win shows their capacity to explode in attack, but the 0-3 home defeat to CSKA Sofia has put them on the brink. Their season in Europe now hangs on producing a big away performance in Sofia to stay in the competition.

Form & Momentum

CSKA Sofia come into the second leg in excellent rhythm, with a recent record of WWDWW in this Europa League run. That sequence reflects a team that has been consistently effective, averaging 1.8 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game across those 5 matches, a balance that justifies their growing confidence. Three clean sheets in those fixtures reinforce the impression of a side that knows how to manage two-legged ties and protect leads when it matters.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s form line of WWL tells a different story: two strong wins followed by a heavy setback. They average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match over their 3 games, numbers that suggest attacking threat but also vulnerability when the level rises. The recent 0-3 loss to CSKA Sofia has checked their momentum and leaves them needing to rediscover the intensity of their earlier performances to have any chance of turning the tie around.

Head-to-Head Patterns

The history between these two clubs is short but already decisive. Their only recorded recent meeting came on 6 August 2026 at Batumi Arena, where CSKA Sofia stunned Maccabi Tel Aviv with a 0-3 away victory (3rd Qualifying Round, UEFA Europa League, season 2026, August 2026). That result not only shapes the aggregate score but also sets a psychological tone: CSKA have already shown they can control Maccabi on neutral ground, let alone at home. With no other competitive clashes in the data, that emphatic first leg stands as the defining reference point for this return match.

Tactical Preview

CSKA Sofia’s European campaign so far paints the picture of a tactically flexible and defensively solid side. They have used a variety of systems — including 4-3-1-2, 3-5-2, 4-4-2, 4-1-4-1 and 4-3-3 — each at least once, which underlines a willingness to adapt to opponents and game states. Across 5 matches they have scored 9 goals and conceded just 3, and three clean sheets highlight how well their structure protects the back line. The ability to win both high-scoring matches (like a 3-2 home victory) and controlled away games (such as a 0-3 success) suggests they can either press high or sit in and counter depending on the scenario. With attackers like I. Pittas, S. Godoy and creative midfielders such as S. Sensi and Bruno Jordão available, CSKA have enough variety to threaten Maccabi both between the lines and in transition.

Maccabi Tel Aviv, for their part, have alternated between 3-5-2, 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 in their 3 Europa League fixtures, reflecting a team still fine-tuning its best shape. Their attacking output — 6 goals in 3 matches — shows that when the structure clicks, they can be dangerous, as evidenced by their biggest away win of 0-5. Defensively, however, the 3 goals conceded all came at home, including the damaging 0-3 against CSKA Sofia, hinting at issues when asked to chase the game or defend space. With midfielders like D. Glazer and Dor Peretz to anchor the centre and forwards such as E. Sokler and Y. Malede to stretch defences, Maccabi have the tools to hurt CSKA, but they must find the right balance between the aggressive approach needed to overturn the tie and the defensive discipline required not to be picked off on the counter.

Statistical Snapshot

• Competition: UEFA Europa League, season 2026 — 13 August 2026.
• Venue: National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia.
• Prediction: Win or draw — Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw.
• Win Probabilities: Home 45% / Draw 45% / Away 10%.
• Model: CSKA Sofia 59.3 — Maccabi Tel Aviv 40.7.

Betting Verdict

The analytical models lean clearly towards CSKA Sofia avoiding defeat, with a combined 90% probability assigned to either a home win or a draw and only 10% to a Maccabi Tel Aviv victory. The comparison model also tilts in favour of the Bulgarians, rating them ahead by 59.3 to 40.7, which aligns with their stronger form line and the authoritative 0-3 win in the first leg. Looking at the odds, home prices range from around 1.98 to 2.14, draws from roughly 3.10 to 3.25, and away wins from about 3.40 up to 4.05, implying that the market sees CSKA as slight but clear favourites while still respecting the possibility of a stalemate. Combining the statistical edge, the three-goal aggregate lead, and the psychological advantage from Batumi, the most sensible betting angle is to follow the advice of “Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw”, which is well supported by both form trends and the head-to-head evidence so far.