Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction: Preview and Betting Tips

Benfica welcome AZ Alkmaar to Lisbon on 28 January 2027 in the UEFA Europa League League Stage, with the Portuguese side looking to turn their impressive early tournament momentum into a statement home win. Although the venue name is not specified, home advantage in the Portuguese capital is traditionally a major factor for Benfica in European nights.

Both teams start this League Stage fixture on 0 points, but they arrive with very different levels of evidence behind them. Benfica sit 4th in the League Round standings with a perfect record of 0 goals scored and conceded from 0 matches, yet their broader Europa League statistics already show a free‑scoring, front‑foot side. AZ Alkmaar, ranked 3rd in the same League Round group, are more of an unknown quantity at this stage, with no competitive Europa League games played in this campaign according to the current data.

For those looking for Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar predictions and betting tips, the numbers point towards a clash between a Benfica attack that has already caught fire in Europe and an AZ side stepping into the competition with a clean slate. The market probabilities are perfectly balanced at 33% for a home win, 33% for the draw and 33% for an away victory, underlining just how open this tie appears on paper despite Benfica’s early scoring form.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Key Stats

• Benfica are ranked 4th in the UEFA Europa League League Round with 0 points and a recent form line of WWDWW in the standings.
• There are no previous head‑to‑head meetings between Benfica and AZ Alkmaar listed for this competition.
• In Europa League tournament statistics, Benfica have scored 19 goals and conceded just 6 across 6 matches, averaging 3.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 4 vs 3
• Points: 0 vs 0
• Goals For: 0 vs 0
• Goals Against: 0 vs 0
• Clean Sheets: Benfica 1, AZ Alkmaar 0 (tournament statistics)

In pure League Round standings terms, there is almost nothing to separate the sides yet: both are on 0 points with no goals scored or conceded. AZ Alkmaar are nominally ahead in 3rd, Benfica in 4th, but that ranking is largely administrative at this early stage.

The broader Europa League statistics, however, paint a very different picture. Benfica have already played 6 matches in this campaign, winning 4, drawing 1 and losing just 1. They have racked up 19 goals in those games, including 14 at home, where they average an eye‑catching 4.7 goals per match. Defensively they have been relatively solid too, conceding only 6 times in total and keeping 1 clean sheet. By contrast, AZ Alkmaar have yet to play a game in this Europa League season, so their current European level is harder to gauge and will only become clear once the League Stage progresses.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Key Matchups

V. Pavlidis vs J. Hornkamp

All the available attacking data leans heavily towards Benfica, and in particular towards V. Pavlidis. The Greek forward has been one of the standout performers in this Europa League campaign, scoring 5 goals and providing 1 assist in just 3 appearances. He has also picked up 1 yellow card, underlining his combative edge in the final third. Pavlidis leads both the top scorers and top assists lists for Benfica in this competition, making him the clear focal point of their attacking play.

On the AZ Alkmaar side, we lack specific Europa League scoring data for individual players so far. Among the listed squad, J. Hornkamp stands out as a senior attacker, but there are no tournament‑level goals or assists recorded yet. That means Hornkamp and his fellow forwards such as M. Meerdink and Weslley Patati will be stepping into a high‑pressure environment against a Benfica back line that has conceded only 1.0 goal per game in Europe. The key question is whether AZ’s attack can match the proven productivity of Pavlidis and his supporting cast.

Rafa vs C. Stengs

Another intriguing creative battle could emerge between Rafa for Benfica and C. Stengs for AZ Alkmaar. Rafa has been a reliable contributor in this Europa League run, with 2 goals and 1 assist across 4 appearances. His ability to drift between the lines and link with Pavlidis, A. Schjelderup and D. Lukebakio makes him central to Benfica’s attacking structure.

Stengs, meanwhile, is one of AZ Alkmaar’s most technically gifted midfielders, but again there are no recorded Europa League goals or assists for him in this campaign yet. If AZ are to control phases of possession in Lisbon, Stengs will likely need to match Rafa’s influence in the final third. Without existing tournament stats to lean on, AZ’s hopes rest on his quality translating immediately to this European stage.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

There are currently no recorded recent head‑to‑head meetings between Benfica and AZ Alkmaar in this competition. This adds an extra layer of unpredictability, with no direct historical reference point for how these styles might clash.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Statistically, this is a matchup between a battle‑hardened Europa League side and a relative unknown. Benfica’s recent tournament form is strong: 4 wins from 6, 19 goals scored, and an attacking profile that sees them scoring consistently across all phases of matches. Their last‑five performance indicators are impressive too, with an attacking index of 100 and 18 goals scored in that span.

AZ Alkmaar, by contrast, enter with a clean slate but also with no demonstrated Europa League rhythm this season. Their last‑five metrics sit at 0 for attack and defence, purely because they have yet to play. That makes them something of a wildcard, but it also suggests they may need time to adapt to the intensity and tactical demands of this League Stage.

Interestingly, the probability model gives an even 33% chance to each of a home win, a draw and an away win, reflecting high uncertainty rather than genuine parity. Given Benfica’s proven scoring power, their solid defensive record (only 6 goals conceded in 6 matches), and the presence of in‑form attackers like Pavlidis and Rafa, the balance of evidence still tilts slightly towards a home victory in Lisbon, though AZ’s freshness could keep the scoreline competitive.

Predicted Score: Benfica 2-1 AZ Alkmaar

Benfica Recent Form

In the Europa League, Benfica’s recent form is excellent. Their standings form line of WWDWW indicates a side that has been consistently winning, with just a single draw in their last five recorded matches in the competition. Across 6 tournament fixtures, they have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1, scoring 19 goals and conceding only 6. At home they have been particularly ruthless, averaging 4.7 goals scored per match and conceding just 0.7.

AZ Alkmaar Recent Form

AZ Alkmaar’s Europa League form is effectively a blank canvas at this point. Their standings form is listed as null, and they have yet to play a match in this season’s competition. With 0 games played, 0 goals scored and 0 conceded, there is no recent tournament form to analyse, which makes their performance in Lisbon especially hard to forecast. Their challenge will be to quickly find cohesion and intensity against a Benfica side already up to speed in European competition.

Benfica Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Trubin; Defenders: C. Lenglet, A. Bah, Tomás Araújo, S. Dahl; Midfielders: João Palhinha, L. Barreiro, H. Sudakov, J. Kamiński, Rafa; Forwards: V. Pavlidis.

Benfica have a deep and well‑balanced squad for this Europa League campaign. At the back, experienced defender C. Lenglet and dynamic full‑back A. Bah offer both solidity and some attacking thrust. In midfield, the presence of João Palhinha and L. Barreiro provides a strong defensive shield, while H. Sudakov and J. Kamiński have already contributed with assists in the tournament. Further forward, Rafa’s 2 goals and 1 assist complement the prolific Pavlidis, who leads the scoring charts with 5 goals. Alternatives such as D. Lukebakio, A. Schjelderup, J. Durán and G. Prestianni have all scored or assisted in Europe, giving Benfica multiple tactical options in a likely 4‑2‑3‑1 or 4‑1‑3‑2 shape.

AZ Alkmaar Possible Starting Lineup

GK: R. Owusu-Oduro; Defenders: W. Hoedt, W. Goes, M. Chávez, S. Maikuma; Midfielders: J. Clasie, P. Koopmeiners, K. Smit, V. Byskov, C. Stengs; Forwards: J. Hornkamp.

AZ Alkmaar’s squad list suggests a blend of experience and youth. At the back, W. Hoedt and W. Goes provide height and defensive presence, while full‑backs such as S. Maikuma and M. Chávez can offer width. In midfield, the likes of J. Clasie and P. Koopmeiners bring control and passing range, with creative support from players such as K. Smit, V. Byskov and C. Stengs. Up front, J. Hornkamp and M. Meerdink are natural attacking options, with Weslley Patati adding pace. Without Europa League match statistics, it is difficult to be precise about their tactical balance, but a 4‑2‑3‑1 or 4‑3‑3 setup looks plausible.

Benfica Team News

No significant absences reported.

AZ Alkmaar Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Benfica:

• None reported.

AZ Alkmaar:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Benfica to win. Even though the win probabilities are listed as 33% for each outcome, Benfica’s Europa League record of 4 wins in 6, combined with 19 goals scored and strong home scoring averages, suggests they are more likely than AZ Alkmaar to take all three points. Home advantage in Lisbon and the presence of in‑form forwards like V. Pavlidis and Rafa further strengthen the case for a Benfica victory.
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 total goals. Benfica’s matches in this Europa League run have been high‑scoring: they average 3.2 goals scored per game and 1.0 conceded. Their home games are even more explosive, with 4.7 goals scored on average. While AZ Alkmaar’s European attacking level is untested this season, Benfica’s attacking output alone often pushes matches over common goal lines, making a goals‑heavy contest a realistic scenario.
• Value Tip: V. Pavlidis to score anytime. The Greek striker has 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 Europa League appearances, while also featuring prominently in the top scorers, top assists and top cards lists for Benfica. With Benfica creating plenty of chances (19 goals in 6 games) and Pavlidis clearly at the centre of their attacking scheme, backing him in the goalscorer markets offers attractive value relative to his current production.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.