Arsenal W vs Everton W: FA WSL Match Preview

Arsenal W welcome Everton W to Emirates Stadium in FA WSL on 2026-05-13 with a clear mismatch on paper. Arsenal sit 3rd with 45 points from 20 matches (13-6-1, 49:13), chasing Champions League qualification, while Everton are 8th on 20 points (6-2-12, 24:36) and essentially playing for mid-table pride. Arsenal are unbeaten at home (7-3-0, 27:6), whereas Everton’s away record is mixed (4-2-4, 14:14), but they now face arguably the league’s most balanced side.

Form-wise, Arsenal arrive in elite shape. Their last-five snapshot in the prediction model shows 87% form, 100% attack index and 79% defensive index, with 21 goals scored and only 3 conceded (4.2 scored and 0.6 conceded on average). Over the full league campaign, they average 2.5 goals for and 0.7 against per match, and have kept 10 clean sheets in 20 games. They also show strong late-game production: 13 of their 49 league goals (26.53%) have come from the 76th minute onwards, suggesting they sustain pressure and depth in attack.

Everton’s form is far more volatile. The prediction model rates their last-five form at 40%, with a 50% attack index and just 29% defensive index, scoring 7 and conceding 10 in that span (1.4 for, 2.0 against per match). Across the league, they score 1.2 and concede 1.8 per game, with only 3 clean sheets in 20 outings. Their defensive profile is especially concerning: 17 of 20 matches have seen them concede at least once, and 11 have seen them concede 2+ goals. Against an Arsenal attack led by Alessia Russo, Stina Blackstenius and supported by creators like Olivia Smith and Smilla Holmberg, this is a difficult matchup.

Head-to-Head Data

Head-to-head data in FA WSL underscores the gap in quality but also shows Everton can occasionally frustrate Arsenal. The indexed list of recent league meetings is:

2025-12-13 (Goodison Park, FA WSL): Everton W 1–3 Arsenal W – Arsenal won away after leading 2–1 at half-time.
2025-03-14 (Walton Hall Park, FA WSL): Everton W 1–3 Arsenal W – another controlled Arsenal away win.
2024-10-06 (Emirates Stadium, FA WSL): Arsenal W 0–0 Everton W – Everton held out for a clean sheet in London.
2024-04-28 (Walton Hall Park, FA WSL): Everton W 1–1 Arsenal W – a balanced draw in Liverpool.
2024-01-20 (Meadow Park, FA WSL): Arsenal W 2–1 Everton W – Arsenal edged a competitive home game.
2023-05-17 (Walton Hall Park, FA WSL): Everton W 1–4 Arsenal W – a dominant Arsenal away performance.
2022-12-03 (Meadow Park, FA WSL): Arsenal W 1–0 Everton W – narrow home win.
2022-04-24 (Walton Hall Park, FA WSL): Everton W 0–3 Arsenal W – comfortable Arsenal victory.
2021-10-10 (Meadow Park, FA WSL): Arsenal W 3–0 Everton W – convincing home success.
2021-05-02 (Walton Hall Park, FA WSL): Everton W 1–2 Arsenal W – Arsenal again winning away.

These fixtures show that while Arsenal usually find a way to win, Everton have recently managed a 0–0 at Emirates on 2024-10-06 and a 1–1 at Walton Hall Park on 2024-04-28, so a total collapse is not guaranteed. However, the comparison metrics in the prediction model are heavily skewed: form 68% vs 32%, attack 75% vs 25%, defence 77% vs 23%, and an overall 75.7% vs 24.3% in Arsenal’s favour.

The betting markets mirror this imbalance. Across major bookmakers, Arsenal are trading around 1.06–1.12 to win, with Marathonbet and 1xBet as low as 1.06 and Unibet at 1.12. Draw prices cluster roughly between 6.90 and 10.50, and Everton are extreme outsiders at around 15.00–19.00. These odds imply an overwhelming home win probability and leave almost no value in backing Arsenal outright.

The official prediction model selects Arsenal W as the winner with an advice line of “Winner : Arsenal W”, and assigns 50% home, 50% draw, 0% away in its percent field, but the comparison and Poisson distribution (80% home vs 20% away) clearly support a strong Arsenal edge. Translating this into a betting angle, the most rational stance is:

Match outcome: Arsenal W to win – fully aligned with the model and odds.
With such a short home price, bettors should consider Arsenal in combination bets or look to handicap/alternative markets (e.g. Arsenal -1.5 or Everton under a low team-goal line) rather than the 1X2 alone, while recognising that the previous 0–0 at Emirates shows a small risk that Everton can set up defensively and limit damage.