Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Anderlecht welcome PAOK to Lotto Park in Anderlecht on 13 August 2026 for the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. The Belgian side hold a narrow advantage after a disciplined 1-0 win in Thessaloniki and now look to finish the job in front of their home crowd.

For Anderlecht, this is a major opportunity to move within one step of the Europa League group stage. Their early tournament form has been strong, remaining unbeaten across three matches with a positive goal difference and no defeats recorded. PAOK, meanwhile, must overturn the first-leg deficit away from home, but they arrive with their own impressive attacking numbers and recent wins in the competition.

With a finely balanced tie, strong recent records for both clubs, and high stakes for European qualification, this second leg sets up as a tactical battle where small margins, set-pieces, and defensive concentration could decide who progresses.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Stats

• Anderlecht are unbeaten in the 2026 UEFA Europa League campaign so far, with 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 2.
• The only previous recent meeting between the sides came on 6 August 2026, when Anderlecht beat PAOK 1-0 away at Toumba Stadium in the first leg.
• Across their Europa League statistics this season, both Anderlecht and PAOK have scored 5 goals in 3 matches, averaging 1.7 goals per game each.

Anderlecht vs PAOK — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: 5 (Anderlecht tournament statistics) vs 5 (PAOK tournament statistics)
• Goals Against: 2 (Anderlecht tournament statistics) vs 3 (PAOK tournament statistics)
• Clean Sheets: Anderlecht 1, PAOK 1 (tournament statistics)

Standings data for this qualifying round is not provided, but tournament statistics give a clear picture of how both sides have started their Europa League campaigns. Anderlecht have played 3 matches, winning 2 and drawing 1, and have yet to lose. They have scored 5 goals and conceded only 2, reflecting a solid balance between attack and defence.

PAOK also come into this second leg with 2 wins and 1 defeat from their 3 Europa League fixtures, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Their numbers suggest a slightly more open style, with a higher goals-against average (1.0 per match compared to Anderlecht’s 0.7). Both teams have managed 1 clean sheet each, underlining that while they can defend, neither is completely watertight at this stage of the competition.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Matchups

Anderlecht attack vs PAOK defence

Anderlecht’s offensive profile in this Europa League campaign has been efficient and well-timed. They have scored 5 goals in 3 matches, averaging 1.7 per game, with a particularly strong home output of 3 goals in their single home fixture (3.0 average at home). Their goals are well spread across the match, with a significant share coming in the opening 15 minutes and the final quarter-hour, indicating a team that starts sharply and finishes strongly.

PAOK’s defence has been generally solid at home (0.5 goals conceded per game) but more vulnerable away, where they concede an average of 2.0 goals per match. Across their 3 fixtures they have allowed 3 goals in total. With Anderlecht creating early and late pressure and PAOK conceding a high proportion of goals in the 0–15 and 76–90 minute windows, the battle between Anderlecht’s front line and PAOK’s back four could be decisive, especially in those phases.

PAOK attack vs Anderlecht defensive structure

PAOK’s attack has been one of their strengths in this qualifying campaign. They have also scored 5 goals in 3 games, with a notable 3.0 goals-per-game average away from home, thanks largely to a high-scoring away win (2-3). They tend to find the net in the 31–60 minute period, with a large share of their goals arriving between the 31–45 and 46–60 minute ranges, suggesting a side that grows into matches and can punish lapses around half-time.

Anderlecht, however, have been defensively disciplined. They have conceded just 2 goals in 3 matches (0.7 per game), and crucially, they have not failed to score in any match so far. Their defensive record is complemented by a clean sheet away at PAOK in the first leg, where they restricted the Greek side despite PAOK’s strong home scoring record. How Anderlecht manage PAOK’s mid-game surges while protecting a narrow aggregate lead will be a central tactical storyline.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides have only recently crossed paths in European competition, with the first leg providing the main reference point for this second encounter. That match in Thessaloniki showed Anderlecht’s ability to execute a game plan away from home and PAOK’s challenge in breaking down a well-organised defence.

• 06 August 2026: PAOK 0-1 Anderlecht (UEFA Europa League)

Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction

Stats suggest a very finely poised second leg. The prediction model gives Anderlecht a 45% chance of winning in 90 minutes, with a 45% probability of a draw and only a 10% chance of a PAOK away win. That aligns with the first-leg pattern: Anderlecht are slightly more solid overall, while PAOK’s path to progression likely depends on opening the game up and taking more risks.

Anderlecht’s defensive numbers (2 goals conceded in 3 matches, one clean sheet, no defeats) combined with home advantage at Lotto Park point towards them being able to at least avoid defeat. PAOK’s attacking record, especially away from home, means they are capable of scoring, but their higher goals-against average suggests they may leave gaps as they chase the tie.

Predicted Score: Anderlecht 1-1 PAOK

With no reliable numerical goal prediction provided, a conservative outlook is that Anderlecht do enough to protect their aggregate lead, with a draw the likeliest single result over 90 minutes.

Anderlecht Recent Form

In Europa League action this season, Anderlecht are unbeaten across 3 matches, with a record of 2 wins and 1 draw. They have been particularly strong at home, scoring 3 goals in their sole home fixture, while also showing resilience on the road with a win and a draw away. Their recent tournament form reflects a team that is hard to beat, combining steady attacking output with a tight defence.

PAOK Recent Form

PAOK’s recent Europa League form shows 2 wins and 1 defeat from 3 matches. They opened with back-to-back victories, including a 2-0 home win and a 2-3 away success, before the 0-1 home loss to Anderlecht in the first leg. Their performances indicate strong attacking potential but also some defensive vulnerability, especially when stepping up in quality of opposition.

Anderlecht Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players (grouped by position):
Goalkeepers: C. Coosemans, J. Heekeren
Defenders: L. Augustinsson, G. Biancone, L. Hey, Z. Keita, M. N'Diaye, L. Pétrot, K. Sardella, B. Vroninks, A. de Ridder, M. Kana, A. Maamar
Midfielders: L. Ambros, I. Camara, N. Kalonji Kafumpata, E. Llansana, N. Saliba, M. Stroeykens, O. Antman, T. Degreef, C. Huerta, Jayden Onia Seke, K. Nga
Forwards/Attackers: A. Bertaccini, M. Cvetkovic, E. Dao, N. Cobiella, D. Sikan

Anderlecht have a deep and flexible squad with multiple options in defence and midfield, allowing them to switch between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3, formations they have already used in the tournament. Expect a balanced setup that protects their aggregate lead while still offering width and pace in transition. The presence of several young attackers alongside more experienced midfielders gives them options to adjust the intensity and tempo as the match develops.

PAOK Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players (grouped by position):
Goalkeepers: J. Pavlenka, A. Tsiftsis, D. Monastirlis, Vasileios Nikolakoulis
Defenders: A. Baba, D. Bataoulas, Elustondo, P. Hatzidiakos, J. Gómez, J. Kenny, G. Kosidis, D. Kottas, L. Lyratzis, G. Michailidis, G. Sideras, G. Taylor, K. Thymianis
Midfielders: M. Camara, K. Despodov, G. Konstantelias, S. Meïté, D. Pelkas, B. Santamaría, Taison, D. Tsopouroglou, C. Zafeiris, A. Živković, D. Chatsidis
Forwards/Attackers: T. Ali, M. Balde, D. Berdos, B. Dunga, A. Jeremejeff, A. Mythou

PAOK have consistently used a 4-2-3-1 structure in this Europa League campaign, indicating a preference for a double pivot in midfield and three advanced creators behind a central striker. With several experienced attacking midfielders and wingers, they are well equipped to push numbers forward when chasing the game. However, this shape can leave their full-backs exposed, particularly if they commit too many players ahead of the ball in search of goals.

Anderlecht Team News

No significant absences reported.

PAOK Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Anderlecht:

• None reported.

PAOK:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Anderlecht vs PAOK

Below are three data-backed betting angles for this second-leg clash.

• Result Tip: Anderlecht or Draw (Double Chance)
  With Anderlecht given a 45% chance to win and the draw also at 45%, and only a 10% probability assigned to a PAOK victory, siding against an away win looks logical. The market, however, slightly favours PAOK in the 1X2 odds (home win priced around 2.80–2.94, draw 3.00–3.15, away win 2.55–2.68), implying roughly 34–36% for Anderlecht, 31–33% for the draw, and 37–39% for PAOK. That discrepancy suggests value in a conservative Anderlecht-or-draw angle via combination or double-chance markets.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 Total Goals
  Both teams average 1.7 goals scored per game in the competition, and none of their combined 6 matches has featured fewer than 1 goal. Anderlecht’s home average is 3.0 scored, while PAOK’s away average is 3.0 scored, with both sides conceding regularly in those settings. The prediction advice already leans towards a “+1.5 goals” scenario, and match-winner odds in the 2.55–2.94 range indicate a relatively open contest rather than a cagey, low-scoring affair.
• Value Tip: Both Teams to Score
  Anderlecht have not failed to score in any of their 3 Europa League matches, and PAOK have only failed to score once, in the first leg against Anderlecht. With both sides showing strong attacking averages (1.7 goals per game each) and PAOK needing to chase the tie, a more open game is likely. While specific BTTS odds are not listed, the match-winner prices (home 2.80–2.94, draw 3.00–3.15, away 2.55–2.68) suggest the market expects a competitive, balanced match where both teams have realistic scoring chances, making BTTS a potentially attractive value angle.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.