Spain Slight Favorite Over Argentina in 2026 World Cup Final

In a thrilling semifinal, Lionel Messi's Argentina overturned a 1-0 deficit to defeat England 2-1. Goals came quickly for the South American side, snatching victory from under Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, ending England's hopes of their first World Cup since 1966.

Despite the comeback, bookmakers still see Argentina as the underdog. After being slight favorites against England, Spain now holds a stronger position for Sunday's final. At BetMGM, Spain opened as a -175 favorite, while Argentina is listed at +125. The prediction platform Kalshi gives Spain a 58% chance to claim the trophy, leaving Argentina with 42%.

Spain's Route to the Final

Spain secured their place by defeating France 2-0. Mikel Oyarzabal converted a penalty early on, followed by a goal from Pedro Porro in the second half. France appeared less dominant than earlier matches, unable to respond effectively.

The final kicks off at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday at the New York/New Jersey Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.