Ararat-Armenia vs Celje Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Ararat-Armenia welcome Celje to the Football Academy Stadium in Yerevan on 4 August 2026 for a UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round tie that already looks finely poised on paper. With both sides showing attacking intent in their early-round statistics, this qualifier promises to be one of the more intriguing matchups at this stage of the competition.

Ararat-Armenia arrive with a mixed but explosive profile in Champions League qualifying: strong at home, more fragile away, yet consistently involved in games with goals. Celje, by contrast, have been relentlessly open in their two qualifiers so far, scoring three in each outing but conceding freely as well. For fans and bettors looking for Ararat-Armenia vs Celje prediction angles, the numbers suggest a high-tempo contest rather than a cagey first leg.

With a place in the next phase of Champions League qualifying at stake, both clubs know this tie can shape their entire European campaign. Ararat-Armenia will lean on their perfect home record and previous success over Celje in continental competition, while the Slovenian side will back their firepower and unbeaten start in this season’s qualifiers.

Ararat-Armenia vs Celje Key Stats

• Ararat-Armenia have played 4 Champions League qualifiers this season, winning all 2 at home with 4 goals scored and 0 conceded.
• The only previous European meeting between these sides was on 24 September 2020 in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round, when Ararat-Armenia beat Celje 1-0 after extra time in Yerevan.
• Ararat-Armenia have kept 2 clean sheets in 4 Champions League qualifiers this season, while Celje have yet to keep a clean sheet, conceding 5 goals in just 2 matches.

Ararat-Armenia vs Celje — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: Not available vs Not available
• Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
• Clean Sheets: Ararat-Armenia 2 (Champions League 2026 qualifiers), Celje 0 (Champions League 2026 qualifiers)

Group or league standings are not yet defined for this Champions League qualifying phase, but the tournament statistics still give a clear picture of how these teams approach games. Ararat-Armenia have been ruthless at home, winning both qualifiers in Yerevan without conceding, and averaging 2.0 goals scored per home match across 2 fixtures.

Celje, meanwhile, have been involved in high-scoring contests in their 2 qualifiers so far, averaging 3.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per game. That attacking output is impressive, but the defensive numbers underline why Ararat-Armenia are viewed as slight favourites, especially with home advantage and a proven ability to keep clean sheets in this campaign.

Ararat-Armenia vs Celje Key Matchups

Z. Shaghoyan vs Celje attacking unit

For Ararat-Armenia, Zhirayr Shaghoyan stands out among the top scorers in this Champions League season. The 24-year-old midfielder has made 4 appearances, with 3 starts and 71 minutes played, scoring 1 goal. Even in limited minutes, his ability to arrive from midfield and contribute on the scoresheet adds an extra layer to Ararat-Armenia’s attack.

Celje’s player-level attacking stats are not individually highlighted in the top scorers list, but as a unit they have scored 6 goals in just 2 qualifiers, splitting those evenly between home and away (3 goals in each). Shaghoyan’s knack for contributing in the final third could be crucial in a game where Celje’s open style will likely create spaces between the lines for him to exploit.

Sandro Lima vs Celje defence

Another key figure for Ararat-Armenia is forward Sandro Lima. The 35-year-old attacker has also scored 1 goal in 4 Champions League appearances this season, starting all 4 and logging 79 minutes. While his underlying shot numbers are not detailed, his presence as a consistent starter and scorer suggests he is central to Ararat-Armenia’s attacking structure.

He will face a Celje back line that has conceded 5 goals in 2 qualifiers, with 2 goals allowed at home and 3 away. Celje’s defensive average of 2.5 goals conceded per game indicates vulnerability, particularly against a side like Ararat-Armenia that averages 1.8 goals per match across 4 qualifiers. If Sandro Lima can pin the centre-backs and capitalise on any lapses, Ararat-Armenia’s home scoring trend is likely to continue.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These clubs are no strangers in European qualifiers, having met once before in a tight knockout tie decided in extra time in Yerevan.

• 24 September 2020: Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Celje (AET) (UEFA Europa League)

Ararat-Armenia vs Celje Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced contest with a slight tilt towards the hosts. Ararat-Armenia’s Champions League qualifying record this season reads 2 wins and 2 defeats, but crucially they are perfect at home: 2 wins, 4 goals scored, none conceded. Their goals for and against profile is split — 7 scored and 5 conceded across 4 games — but all of the defensive issues have come away from Yerevan.

Celje arrive unbeaten in this qualifying campaign with a record of 1 win and 1 draw. They have shown serious attacking threat, scoring 3 goals in both matches and averaging 3.0 goals per game. However, conceding 5 goals in those 2 fixtures points to a wide-open style that could play into Ararat-Armenia’s hands, especially given the Armenian side’s strong home record and previous head-to-head win in Yerevan.

The prediction model gives Ararat-Armenia a 45% chance of victory, with the draw also rated at 45% and a Celje win at just 10%. With the “winner” indicator favouring Ararat-Armenia (win or draw), the expectation is that the hosts avoid defeat and that the match features at least two goals, aligning with the over 1.5 goals advice.

Predicted Score: Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje

Ararat-Armenia Recent Form

In Champions League qualifying this season, Ararat-Armenia’s recent form is mixed but generally positive: they have won 2 and lost 2 of their 4 matches. At home they have been flawless, winning both games with a combined score of 4-0. Overall, they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match, and they have yet to fail to score in this campaign.

Celje Recent Form

Celje’s recent form in Champions League qualifying is encouraging: unbeaten across 2 matches with 1 win and 1 draw. They are prolific going forward, scoring 6 goals (3 in each game) and averaging 3.0 goals per match, but their defensive record of 2.5 goals conceded per game underlines how open their contests have been.

Ararat-Armenia Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Nersesyan or Joao Bravim; Defenders: Hugo Oliveira, Bruno Wilson, Luís Felipe, Junior Julio; Midfielders: Zidane Banjaqui, Franҫa, A. Ambartsumyan; Forwards: Sandro Lima, P. Ayongo, Z. Shaghoyan.

Ararat-Armenia have typically alternated between 4-3-3 and 3-4-3 in this Champions League campaign, with 4-3-3 used most often. The presence of attacking midfielders like Zidane Banjaqui (1 assist and 2 yellow cards in 4 appearances) and wide threats such as Z. Shaghoyan gives them flexibility between playing through the middle and exploiting the flanks. Defensively, players like Bruno Wilson and Hugo Oliveira have featured regularly and will be key to preserving the strong home clean-sheet record.

Celje Possible Starting Lineup

GK: Ž. Frelih; Defenders: Ł. Bejger, David Castro, A. Dionkou, L. Koútris; Midfielders: M. Zabukovnik, D. Hrka, S. Sešlar; Forwards: A. Kotnik, M. Poplatnik, Y. Dukuly.

Celje have used both 4-4-2 and 4-3-3 in their two Champions League qualifiers, which fits their attacking output of 3 goals per match. With no clean sheets so far, they may lean towards a slightly more balanced midfield to protect a back line that has conceded 5 goals in 2 games. However, their offensive numbers suggest they are unlikely to abandon their forward-thinking approach entirely, especially with multiple attacking and creative options in the squad.

Ararat-Armenia Team News

No significant absences reported.

Celje Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Ararat-Armenia:

• None reported.

Celje:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Ararat-Armenia vs Celje

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Ararat-Armenia Draw No Bet. With Ararat-Armenia given a 45% chance to win and 45% for the draw, against only 10% for a Celje victory, the hosts are clearly favoured not to lose. Market odds for the match winner show Ararat-Armenia at 2.87 (implied probability ≈34.8%) and Celje at 2.42 (≈41.3%), with the draw at 3.20 (≈31.3%). Combining the model’s strong “win or draw” lean for Ararat-Armenia with their perfect home record in qualifying makes a safety-first home-focused angle attractive.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 Total Goals. Ararat-Armenia’s qualifiers average 3.0 total goals per game (7 scored, 5 conceded across 4 matches), while Celje’s average is 5.5 total goals (6 scored, 5 conceded in 2 games). Both teams have seen over 1.5 goals in all their Champions League qualifiers this season. The prediction advice also explicitly backs “+1.5 goals”, so taking over 1.5 goals aligns with both historical scoring patterns and the model outlook. Use the closest over/under goals price offered by your bookmaker, as specific totals odds are not listed here.
• Value Tip: Both Teams to Score. Ararat-Armenia have yet to fail to score in 4 qualifiers, and Celje have scored in both of theirs, hitting 3 goals in each match. Celje’s lack of clean sheets (0 in 2 games) and Ararat-Armenia’s defensive wobble away from home suggest vulnerabilities on both sides. With attacking contributors like Sandro Lima and Z. Shaghoyan for Ararat-Armenia and a Celje side averaging 3.0 goals per match, BTTS offers value if priced at or above the implied range suggested by the match winner odds (which imply a relatively balanced, open contest).

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.