Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Portland Thorns W welcome Chicago Red Stars W to Providence Park on 13 September 2026 in NWSL Women Group Stage action, with the two clubs arriving in very different situations. Portland are firmly in the playoff picture, sitting 6th with 38 points, while Chicago are bottom of the table in 16th on just 16 points and fighting to salvage pride in the closing stretch.

The Thorns have been strong at home all year and know that three points here would further cement their push towards the NWSL Women Play Offs Quarter-finals. Chicago, by contrast, travel west with the league’s worst goal difference and away record, and will need a major performance to avoid another heavy defeat in Portland.

With such a stark gap in form, standings and underlying numbers, this clash profiles as one of the most lopsided NWSL Women Group Stage fixtures on the card, but recent head-to-heads show Chicago have occasionally found a way to frustrate Portland. That balance between overwhelming data and the occasional upset underpins this prediction and betting tips breakdown.

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Key Stats

• Portland Thorns W are 6th with 38 points from 23 matches (11 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats), while Chicago Red Stars W are 16th with 16 points (5 wins, 1 draw, 17 defeats).
• In the most recent meeting on 3 May 2026, Portland Thorns W beat Chicago Red Stars W 2-0 away in NWSL Women Group Stage play.
• Season statistics show Portland averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Chicago average just 0.6 scored and 2.3 conceded across 23 fixtures.

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 6 vs 16
• Points: 38 vs 16
• Goals For: 37 vs 13
• Goals Against: 32 vs 53
• Clean Sheets: Portland Thorns W 9 vs Chicago Red Stars W 3 (tournament statistics)

Across 23 matches, Portland Thorns W have built a solid campaign: 37 goals scored and 32 conceded, with a positive goal difference of +5 and a strong home record of 7 wins, 3 draws and just 1 defeat at Providence Park (20 goals scored, 7 conceded). Their recent league form string of LDWWW underlines a side that has largely stabilised and is trending upwards at the right time.

Chicago Red Stars W, by contrast, sit 16th with a goal difference of -40 after scoring only 13 and conceding 53 in 23 matches. Their away record is particularly alarming: 1 win and 11 defeats, with just 3 goals scored and 31 conceded on the road. Recent form of LLWLL suggests occasional flashes of resistance, but the broader pattern is of a team struggling badly at both ends of the pitch.

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Key Matchups

S. Smith vs Chicago Red Stars W back line

Sophia Smith has been one of the standout attackers in NWSL Women this season. For Portland she has 10 goals and 1 assist in 23 appearances, with 60 shots and 37 on target, and an impressive rating of 7.2. Her dribbling output (62 attempts, 30 successful) and 27 key passes underline a multi-dimensional threat who can both finish and create. Against a Chicago defence conceding 2.3 goals per match and averaging 2.6 goals against per away game, Smith’s movement and volume shooting should generate multiple high-quality chances, especially with Portland’s strong home attacking average of 1.8 goals per match.

P. Tordin vs Chicago midfield and defence

P. Tordin has been Portland’s creative hub. Across 23 appearances and 1,648 minutes, she has contributed 6 goals and 7 assists, with 36 key passes and 385 total passes at 71% accuracy. She also wins a high number of duels (100 won from 206) and draws 25 fouls, often tilting territory and set-piece opportunities in Portland’s favour. Up against a Chicago side that has failed to keep many clean sheets (3 in total) and frequently concedes in the 46–60 and 61–75 minute windows, Tordin’s ability to find pockets between the lines should be pivotal in breaking them down repeatedly.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent clashes between Portland Thorns W and Chicago Red Stars W have generally favoured the Thorns, particularly when they can impose their attacking rhythm. Chicago, however, have managed the odd away success in Portland, so the matchup is not entirely one-way.

• 3 May 2026: Chicago Red Stars W 0-2 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women)
• 14 September 2025: Chicago Red Stars W 1-1 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women)
• 22 June 2025: Portland Thorns W 1-0 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
• 14 September 2024: Portland Thorns W 0-1 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
• 27 April 2024: Chicago Red Stars W 0-2 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women)

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction

All major indicators point strongly towards a home win. Portland are superior in standings, attack and defence, and boast a dominant home record. Chicago’s away numbers are among the worst in the league, with an average of just 0.3 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per away match, and 11 defeats in 12 on the road.

The prediction model gives Portland a 50% chance of victory, with the draw also at 50% and Chicago at 0%. While that split is unusually generous to the draw, the designated winner is still Portland Thorns W. Comparison indices further underline the gap: Portland lead on form (77 vs 23), attack (69 vs 31), defence (74 vs 26) and overall index (77.0 vs 23.0). The Poisson index is even more emphatic at 96 vs 4 in Portland’s favour.

Given Chicago’s chronic scoring issues and Portland’s nine clean sheets in tournament statistics, a relatively controlled home win without an avalanche of goals looks the likeliest script.

Predicted Score: Portland Thorns W 2-0 Chicago Red Stars W

Portland Thorns W Recent Form

Portland’s recent league form string of LDWWW reflects a side that has bounced back well from a brief wobble. Over their last five league outings they have taken 10 points from a possible 15, and their last-five metrics show 9 goals scored and 7 conceded (1.8 for, 1.4 against per match). With a broader season pattern of 11 wins and only 7 defeats, plus strong home defensive numbers (0.6 goals conceded per home game), they arrive in this Group Stage clash with confidence and momentum.

Chicago Red Stars W Recent Form

Chicago’s form of LLWLL paints a much bleaker picture. In their last five matches they have scored 4 and conceded 20, averaging 0.8 goals for and 4 against. Over the full 23-match slate they have lost 17 times and failed to score in 16 games, highlighting just how often they are out of contests early. Their defensive collapses tend to come after half-time, with a heavy concentration of goals conceded in the 46–60 and 61–75 minute windows, which is a major concern against a Portland side that sustains pressure well at home.

Portland Thorns W Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Arnold or M. Messner; Defenders: S. Hiatt, M. Müller, I. Obaze, J. Perry, R. Reyes, M. Vignola; Midfielders: J. Fleming, C. Bogere, O. Moultrie, P. Tordin, M. Weaver, R. Turner, S. Harvey, N. Nijstad, Mallie McKenzie; Forwards/Attackers: S. Smith, D. Castellanos, C. Hanks, V. Loboa, M. Padelski.

Portland have a deep and balanced squad, with multiple options in defence and midfield and a potent attacking unit built around S. Smith, P. Tordin and O. Moultrie. Their frequent use of a 4-2-3-1 shape (17 times this season) suggests a structure with two holding midfielders, creative wide players and a central striker, providing both solidity and attacking width. With only two matches all season where they failed to score, and nine clean sheets, Portland can afford to set up on the front foot at Providence Park while trusting their back line to handle Chicago’s limited attacking threat.

Chicago Red Stars W Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Naeher or K. Lund; Defenders: S. Staab, Leila Ouahabi, A. Farmer, T. Malham, Elise Evans; Midfielders: J. Grosso, Maitane López, B. Pinto, A. Gasper, B. Franklin, M. Hayashi, T. E. Dellarose, E. Egizii; Forwards/Attackers: M. Swanson, J. Huitema, M. Alozie, S. Charley, Nádia Gomes, R. Gareis, J. Bike, Jameese Joseph, M. Johnson.

Chicago have rotated through several formations, most commonly 4-2-3-1, 4-1-4-1 and 4-3-3, as they search for a balance that can stabilise a leaky defence and spark a misfiring attack. With only 13 goals scored all season and 16 matches without scoring, they may again opt for a more conservative shape, looking to keep the game tight and rely on moments from experienced attackers like M. Swanson or J. Huitema. However, their away defensive record (31 conceded in 12) suggests that even a cautious approach may not be enough against Portland’s firepower.

Portland Thorns W Team News

No significant absences reported.

Chicago Red Stars W Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Portland Thorns W:

• None reported.

Chicago Red Stars W:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W

Exactly 3 distinct betting angles stand out from this matchup.

• Result Tip: Back Portland Thorns W to win. The prediction model designates Portland as the winner, and the market is in strong agreement. Home win odds range from 1.17 to 1.24, implying an approximate probability between 80.6% (1 ÷ 1.24 × 100) and 85.5% (1 ÷ 1.17 × 100). With Portland’s 7-3-1 home record and Chicago’s 1-0-11 away record, those prices fairly reflect a heavily favoured home side.
• Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. Portland average 1.6 goals scored per match and Chicago just 0.6, while the Thorns have kept 9 clean sheets in tournament statistics. Chicago have failed to score in 16 of 23 games, suggesting a strong chance of a low-scoring away side. Look for under-goals prices around standard under/over markets; with Chicago’s anaemic attack, a 2-0 or 3-0 type scoreline is more likely than a goal-fest.
• Value Tip: Portland Thorns W to win to nil. While this specific market is not listed in the odds data, the underlying case is strong: Portland have conceded only 7 goals in 11 home matches, and Chicago have scored just 3 in 12 away fixtures. With attackers like S. Smith (10 goals) and P. Tordin (6 goals, 7 assists) leading a reliable offence, combining a home win with a clean sheet offers an appealing value angle compared to the short straight home-win price.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.