Liverpool's Shift in Predictions: From Title Favourites to Outsiders

Liverpool, once the darlings of BBC’s prediction panel, are walking into this season with the volume turned down.

A year ago, 22 of 35 pundits tipped them to win the title. Only three thought they would finish lower than second. That wave of confidence has ebbed away. This time, out of 28 predictors, only four believe Liverpool will end up higher than third.

The mood has changed. The expectations have not.

From favourites to outsiders

Thomas Hitzlsperger still sees something serious brewing at Anfield. He has Liverpool down for second place, and his reasoning is clear: he believes in Andoni Iraola.

“I’ve gone for them to finish second because I really like the way Iraola’s teams play,” he explains. The admiration is not neutral, and he admits it. “I am kind of biased here because I am really hoping Wirtz has the season now that people expected him to have last year.”

It’s a prediction built on style and potential rather than certainty. Hitzlsperger is backing the idea that Iraola’s high-energy, aggressive football will scale up at one of the most demanding clubs in Europe.

Danny Murphy is less bullish. He puts Liverpool third and senses a club still in transition.

“Liverpool might need a bit more time before they are challenging for the title again,” he says. The big question, in his eyes, hangs over the right wing and life after Mohamed Salah. Are Liverpool convinced they have already done enough by signing Victor Munoz and possibly handing a bigger role to Rio Ngumoha? Or will they make a late move for Paris St-Germain’s Bradley Barcola, or a similar profile, in the final days of the window?

The attack still carries intrigue. The recruitment plan, less so.

Iraola’s step up under the microscope

Sue Smith pushes Liverpool down another rung. She has them finishing fourth and circles the same name at the centre of the debate: Iraola.

She recognises the scale of the leap. “I know it’s a completely different level and expectation managing Liverpool and it’s going be interesting to see how he does in that sort of step up,” she says. The only fair measure, for now, is his work at Bournemouth, and on that front she is impressed. “All you can judge Iraola on is what he’s done at Bournemouth and I think he’s been brilliant.”

Her concern is not the philosophy. It’s the structure behind it. Defensively, she sees cracks, and one area in particular worries her. “Defensively is my concern, though. Especially the right-hand side.”

That line cuts to the heart of Liverpool’s new reality. The romance of a bold new coach, the promise of emerging talents like Wirtz and Ngumoha, the possibility of a marquee wide forward — all of it sits alongside a harder truth.

The panel no longer looks at Liverpool as the team to beat. The question now is whether Iraola can turn that doubt into fuel and drag them back into a title race that far fewer people expect them to win.