Levante vs Mallorca: Crucial La Liga Clash on May 17, 2026

Levante and Mallorca meet at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia on 17 May 2026 in a high‑pressure La Liga clash, with both sides locked on 39 points and currently in the relegation places (Levante 19th, Mallorca 18th). With two rounds left, this is effectively a survival six‑pointer, and the market plus model data lean slightly towards the hosts.

Over the full league campaign (36 matches), the standings show both teams on identical records: 10 wins, 9 draws, 17 defeats, and 44 goals scored each. The difference is defensive: Levante have conceded 59 (goal difference -15), Mallorca 55 (goal difference -11). At home, Levante are 6‑5‑7 with 24 scored and 28 conceded; Mallorca away are a poor 2‑3‑13, scoring 16 and conceding 34. That away profile is a key driver of the model’s stance.

Form-wise, Levante arrive in better shape. Their league form string is long and mixed, but the prediction model’s last‑five index rates them at 67% form, with attacking output at 60% and defensive at 40%, scoring 9 and conceding 9 in their last 5. Mallorca’s last‑five form is 33%, with 5 scored and 7 conceded; their attack index is 33% and defence 53%, indicating a slightly more solid but less productive side recently. Both teams have the same total record, but Levante’s current momentum and home comfort contrast with Mallorca’s travel issues.

Looking deeper at scoring patterns, Levante average 1.2 goals per match overall, with a strong late surge: 14 of their 44 league goals (29.79%) come between minutes 76–90. They also concede heavily late, with 16 of 59 goals against (28.57%) in that same window. Mallorca also average 1.2 goals per game, but away from home drop to 0.9 on average. Their most productive phases are 61–75 minutes (13 goals, 28.26%) and 76–90 (11 goals, 23.91%). Both sides are prone to late drama, which supports a tight match where the result may swing in the final quarter.

Head‑to‑Head Data

(excluding friendlies) shows a genuinely competitive pairing across different competitions and years:

• On 2025-10-26 in La Liga at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Mallorca and Levante drew 1–1, with Levante leading 1–0 at half-time before being pegged back.
• On 2022-01-08 in La Liga at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Levante won 2–0 at home.
• On 2021-10-02 in La Liga at Iberostar Estadi, Mallorca beat Levante 1–0.
• On 2020-07-09 in La Liga at Iberostar Estadi, Mallorca won 2–0.
• On 2019-11-22 in La Liga at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Levante won 2–1.
• On 2017-03-25 in Segunda División at Iberostar Estadi, Mallorca and Levante drew 1–1.
• On 2016-10-15 in Segunda División at Ciutat de València, Levante beat Mallorca 2–1.
• On 2013-05-05 in La Liga at Iberostar Estadi (Palma de Mallorca), Mallorca and Levante drew 1–1.
• On 2012-12-09 in La Liga at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia (Valencia), Levante won 4–0.

There is also a friendly on 2020-08-27 at Pinatar Arena Football Center, where Levante won 2–1, but that should not be weighted alongside competitive fixtures. Overall, competitive meetings show Levante effective at home and Mallorca competitive but inconsistent, with no clear long‑term dominance either way.

The prediction model quantifies this balance but still edges towards the hosts: 45% home win probability, 45% draw, 10% away win, and explicitly recommends “Double chance : Levante or draw”. The comparison metrics give Levante a 55.3% total edge versus 44.7% for Mallorca, with stronger form (67% vs 33%) and attack (64% vs 36%), while Mallorca rate slightly better defensively (56% vs 44%).

Market prices broadly align: across major bookmakers, Levante are around 2.10–2.20 to win, the draw roughly 3.25–3.47, and Mallorca about 3.13–3.66. Converting the model’s 90% combined probability for “Levante or draw” (45% + 45%) against odds that imply a noticeably lower chance suggests value on the recommended side market rather than the straight 1X2.

Betting Verdict

The data and official advice point clearly to Levante not losing. With Mallorca’s very weak away record and Levante’s stronger recent form, the most robust angle is:

• Primary bet: Double chance – Levante or Draw (1X), following the model’s “Double chance : Levante or draw” advice.
• Correct‑score lean (higher risk): 1–0 or 1–1, consistent with a low‑scoring, tight relegation battle where Levante’s home edge is offset by nerves and Mallorca’s defensive resilience.