Forge vs York United Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Forge welcome York United to Tim Hortons Field on 5 September 2026 in a Canadian Premier League Group Stage clash that pits a title contender against a side battling to stay in touch with the pack. With Forge sitting second and York down in seventh, this matchup carries very different stakes for each club.

Forge have collected 41 points from 19 matches and boast the league’s best defensive record, positioning themselves firmly in the championship conversation. York United, by contrast, are on 18 points from 17 games and own the division’s leakiest defence, making every remaining fixture crucial if they are to claw their way back towards mid-table security.

Recent meetings have heavily favoured Forge, and with the Hamilton side so strong at Tim Hortons Field, this encounter shapes up as a key reference point for Canadian Premier League predictions and betting angles around whether York can finally halt their poor run against their Ontario rivals.

Forge vs York United Key Stats

• Forge are 2nd in the Canadian Premier League with 41 points from 19 matches, scoring 29 and conceding just 14.
• In their last five head-to-head meetings across all competitions, Forge are unbeaten against York United, including a 3-1 away win on 26 July 2026 and a 4-1 away win on 7 June 2026.
• Season statistics show Forge averaging 1.5 goals scored and only 0.7 conceded per match, while keeping 9 clean sheets in 19 league fixtures.

Forge vs York United — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 2 vs 7
• Points: 41 vs 18
• Goals For: 29 vs 22
• Goals Against: 14 vs 37
• Clean Sheets: 9 vs 2

The standings underline just how far apart these sides have been in 2026. Forge have turned Tim Hortons Field into a fortress, winning 7 of 9 home games, drawing one and losing just once, with a home goal difference of 13 scored to 5 conceded. Across 19 matches, their +15 goal differential is built on the league’s tightest back line and a balanced attack.

York United, meanwhile, have struggled badly, especially defensively. They have conceded 37 goals in only 17 outings, an average of 2.2 per game, and own a goal difference of -15. Away from home they have just one win in nine, with 7 goals scored and 18 conceded. On paper, this is very much a meeting of a top-tier unit against a side trying to stop the bleeding.

Forge vs York United Key Matchups

D. Nimick vs T. Skublak

One of the pivotal battles should be between Forge defender Daniel Nimick and York United striker Tomas Skublak. Nimick has been outstanding this season: 17 appearances, all as a starter, with 3 goals from the back, 388 completed passes at 89% accuracy, and strong defensive numbers including 8 tackles, 4 blocks and 8 interceptions. He has also converted 2 penalties, underlining his importance at both ends.

Skublak is York’s main attacking reference. In 15 appearances (13 starts), he has scored 4 goals and added 1 assist, with 14 shots (7 on target) and a solid duel profile, winning 35 of 66 duels. He also creates for others, with 5 key passes and 1 assist, but his aggressive style is reflected in 6 yellow cards. If Nimick can contain Skublak’s physical presence and aerial threat, Forge will be well placed to keep another clean sheet; if Skublak finds space, York’s underdog hopes rest largely on his finishing.

T. Borges vs B. Badibanga

In midfield and the final third, creativity may hinge on Forge’s Tristan Borges and York’s Beni Badibanga. Borges has been one of Forge’s most influential players: 18 appearances, 16 starts, 3 assists and 1 goal. He has produced 17 key passes from 157 total passes at 80% accuracy, while also contributing defensively with 13 tackles and 6 interceptions. His ability to find pockets between the lines and deliver quality final balls makes him a constant danger.

Badibanga is York’s leading creator with 3 assists in 13 appearances. Despite starting only 7 times, he has delivered 10 key passes from 105 total passes at 81% accuracy, and won 22 of 34 duels, showing his effectiveness in tight spaces. If York are to counter-punch successfully, they will need Badibanga to link with Skublak and exploit any rare gaps in Forge’s otherwise solid defensive block.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent history between these two Ontario rivals has been dominated by Forge, who have consistently found ways to win both home and away. York have occasionally made it competitive, but the balance of results and scorelines strongly favours the Hamilton side.

• 26 July 2026: York United 1-3 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
• 7 June 2026: York United 1-4 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
• 18 October 2025: Forge 3-0 York United (Canadian Premier League)
• 9 August 2025: York United 1-2 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
• 29 June 2025: Forge 2-2 York United (Canadian Premier League)

Forge vs York United Prediction

All indicators point towards Forge as strong favourites. The predictive model gives Forge a 45% chance of victory, with another 45% allocated to the draw and just 10% to a York United win. That aligns with the form and structural data: Forge’s defence is the best in the league, conceding only 0.7 goals per match, while York’s defence is conceding over 2 goals a game.

Forge’s recent head-to-head dominance — including back-to-back away wins by two goals or more in 2026 — suggests they match up well against York’s open, vulnerable back line. York’s attack has shown flashes, averaging 1.3 goals per game, but their inability to keep opponents out, especially in the final 30 minutes, makes a clean sheet at Tim Hortons Field unlikely.

Given the prediction that Forge are favoured but with a sizeable draw probability, a competitive match is plausible, yet the gap in defensive solidity and recent H2H trends tilt the call towards a home win by a narrow margin rather than another rout.

Predicted Score: Forge 2-1 York United

Forge Recent Form

Forge’s recent form in the league reads LWWLL, which is a little more uneven than their overall record suggests. Even so, across 19 matches they have won 13 and lost only 4, with 9 clean sheets and just 4 games in which they failed to score. Their last five-match metrics show balanced numbers: 6 goals scored and 6 conceded, but their underlying defensive averages remain among the best in the competition.

York United Recent Form

York United’s recent form string is LDWDL, reflecting inconsistency and defensive frailty. Over 17 league games they have won only 4, drawn 6 and lost 7. Their last five matches show 7 goals scored but 12 conceded, underlining how often they are dragged into high-scoring, chaotic contests. Clean sheets are rare — just 2 all season — and away results remain a significant concern.

Forge Possible Starting Lineup

GK: D. Bertaud; Defenders: M. Jevremović, D. Nimick, D. Krutzen, R. Rama; Midfielders: A. Aromatario, K. Bekker, Molham Babouli; Forwards: T. Borges, N. Ampomah, B. Wright.

Forge have the squad depth to maintain a high standard across the pitch. At the back, the experienced pairing of Jevremović and Nimick, supported by full-backs like Rama, underpins their excellent defensive record. In midfield, Bekker and Aromatario provide control and bite, while Babouli offers creativity between the lines. Up front, Borges and Ampomah can interchange across the front line, with Wright as a central focal point. Tactical flexibility is evident in their use of 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 systems this season, and the balance between structure and attacking threat is a major strength.

York United Possible Starting Lineup

GK: I. Pavela; Defenders: L. Singh, F. Sturing, O. León, J. Córdova; Midfielders: O. Bassett, K. Kibato, M. Ferrari, Gabriel Bitar; Forwards: T. Skublak, J. Altobelli.

York United have some interesting attacking pieces, particularly Skublak and Altobelli, who share the team’s top scoring honours with 4 goals each. Behind them, creators like Bassett and Bitar can supply chances, while Kibato and Ferrari bring energy in midfield. However, the defensive unit — with Singh, Sturing, León and Córdova among the options — has struggled to keep opponents quiet, and the coaching staff may need to lean on more conservative shapes such as 5-4-1 or 3-4-3, both of which have been used this season, to contain Forge’s attacking depth.

Forge Team News

No significant absences reported.

York United Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Forge:

• None reported.

York United:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Forge vs York United

Below are three data-backed betting ideas for this Canadian Premier League clash:

• Result Tip: Back Forge in the match result market (home win or Forge in a “draw no bet”/double chance style position). The prediction model allocates 45% to a Forge win and 45% to the draw, with only 10% for York. Forge’s superior defence, home strength (7 wins from 9) and dominant H2H record make the hosts the logical side to side with.
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 total goals. Forge average 1.5 goals scored per game and York concede 2.2 on average. Recent head-to-head meetings have been high scoring: 3-1 and 4-1 to Forge in 2026, and 3-0 in 2025. York’s last five league games have seen 19 total goals (3.8 per match), suggesting another open contest.
• Value Tip: Daniel Nimick to score anytime or a Forge defender to score. Nimick has 3 league goals this season, including 2 from the penalty spot, and is a major set-piece threat. With York conceding heavily and struggling to defend dead balls, backing a goal contribution from a Forge centre-back offers an attractive high-odds angle.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.