Everton vs Sunderland: Premier League Showdown for Top-Half Finish

Hill Dickinson Stadium stages a tense late-season Premier League meeting on 17 May 2026 as Everton host Sunderland in Round 37. With just one point separating the sides in the league – Everton 10th on 49 points, Sunderland 12th on 48 – this is effectively a play-off for a top-half finish going into the final weekend.

Both teams are safely clear of relegation and out of the European race, but the table still matters. A win here would give either club a strong platform to secure a top‑10 place on the final day; defeat risks slipping into mid-table anonymity after months of hard work.

Form and season context

In the league, Everton’s campaign has been defined by balance: 13 wins, 10 draws and 13 defeats, with 46 goals scored and 46 conceded. Their overall form line of “DDLLD” underlines a recent stall – just three points from the last five in the league – and they have not been able to build sustained momentum, with their longest winning streak across all phases capped at two games.

At Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton have been competitive but not dominant: 6 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats from 18 home fixtures, with a narrow positive goals record (25 for, 24 against). They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per home league game, and have kept 6 clean sheets at home while failing to score 4 times. Their biggest home win across all phases is 3-0, but they have also suffered a 1-4 home defeat, a reminder of their volatility.

Sunderland arrive with a near-identical points tally but a very different profile. In the league they sit on 48 points with a 12-12-12 record, but a negative goal difference of -9 (37 scored, 46 conceded). Their recent league form – “DDLLW” – shows a side that has just snapped a poor run with a crucial victory, but still searching for consistency.

Away from home, Sunderland have struggled more than Everton: 4 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats in 18 away league matches, with only 14 goals scored and 27 conceded. That’s just 0.8 goals scored per away game against 1.5 conceded on average. They have failed to score in 8 away fixtures, although 4 away clean sheets show they can dig in when needed. Their heaviest away defeat across all phases is 3-0, while their best away win is 1-2.

Tactical outlook

Everton’s season-long data suggests a team built on a fairly stable 4-2-3-1, used in 21 matches across all phases. That structure typically provides a double pivot in midfield to protect the back four, with an attacking midfield band supporting a lone striker.

Defensively, Everton concede 1.3 goals per game both home and away across all phases, with 11 clean sheets in 36 matches. They are not an ultra-defensive side, but they are capable of shutting teams out when the structure holds. The double pivot will be particularly important here given the absence of key players: Jarrad Branthwaite (hamstring injury) and Idrissa Gueye (injury) are both ruled out, weakening central defence and defensive midfield. Jack Grealish is also missing with a foot injury, removing a potential creative outlet between the lines.

Without Branthwaite, Everton may need to adjust their build-up, perhaps being more conservative in possession and relying on full-backs less aggressively to avoid exposing a reshuffled centre-back pairing. The loss of Gueye reduces their ball-winning capacity in midfield, so the remaining midfielders will have to be more disciplined without the ball.

Sunderland have been far more flexible tactically. Across all phases they have used 4-2-3-1 (19 times), 4-3-3, 5-4-1, 4-4-2, 4-1-4-1 and even 3-4-3. That versatility allows them to tailor their approach to the opponent and game state. Away from home, a compact 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 is likely, aiming to keep central areas tight and then break when Everton’s full-backs advance.

Sunderland’s attacking numbers – 37 goals in 36 league games – indicate a relatively low-output attack, especially on the road. However, their defensive structure can be solid when well protected by the midfield line. Across all phases they have conceded 46 goals, matching Everton’s total, but their negative goal difference is largely down to that weaker attacking return.

Discipline could play a role. Everton’s yellow cards are heavily clustered from 46-90 minutes, while Sunderland also see a high share of bookings in the 46-75 window. Late-game fouls and potential suspensions loom, though for this specific fixture the more immediate issue is Sunderland’s Daniel Ballard, suspended due to a red card. His absence at the back removes an important defensive presence and aerial threat, which could encourage Everton to target set pieces and crosses.

Both sides are reliable from the spot this season: Everton have scored 2 of 2 penalties, Sunderland 4 of 4, across all phases. If this tight fixture is decided by a penalty, there is evidence of composure from both groups.

Head-to-head: recent history

The last five competitive meetings (excluding friendlies) paint a nuanced picture:

• On 10 January 2026 in the FA Cup Round of 64 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton drew 1-1 with Sunderland after 90 minutes and extra time, before losing 0-3 on penalties.
• On 3 November 2025 in the Premier League at the Stadium of Light, Sunderland and Everton drew 1-1.
• On 20 September 2017 in the League Cup 3rd Round at Goodison Park, Everton beat Sunderland 3-0.
• On 25 February 2017 in the Premier League at Goodison Park, Everton beat Sunderland 2-0.
• On 12 September 2016 in the Premier League at the Stadium of Light, Everton won 0-3 away to Sunderland.

Across these five competitive fixtures, Everton have 3 wins, Sunderland have 0 wins in regulation time, and there have been 2 draws (one of which Sunderland converted into a penalty shootout success).

The recent FA Cup tie at this same venue in January 2026 is particularly relevant: Everton were held 1-1 at home and then lost the shootout, underlining that Sunderland are capable of frustrating them on Merseyside.

Key absences and selection dilemmas

Everton are without:

• Jarrad Branthwaite – hamstring injury
• Jack Grealish – foot injury
• Idrissa Gueye – injury

Sunderland are without:

• Daniel Ballard – red card suspension
• Romaine Mundle – hamstring injury

Branthwaite’s and Ballard’s absences weaken both defences, potentially opening up space for attackers. Grealish’s absence reduces Everton’s ability to unlock low blocks with individual quality, while Gueye’s injury could tilt the midfield battle slightly towards Sunderland if they can overload central areas.

Mundle’s absence affects Sunderland’s depth in wide attacking positions but is less structurally disruptive than losing a starting centre-back.

The verdict

On paper, this is as evenly poised as it gets: one point apart in the league, identical goals conceded tallies, and both sides having kept 11 clean sheets across all phases. Everton’s home record is marginally stronger than Sunderland’s away record, and the historical head-to-head favours the hosts, with Everton having won three of the last five competitive meetings in regular time.

However, Sunderland’s ability to adapt tactically and their recent success on this ground in the FA Cup via penalties suggest they will not be overawed. Everton’s missing spine pieces – a key centre-back and their primary defensive midfielder – slightly blunt their usual solidity, while Sunderland’s own defensive reshuffle without Ballard could make this more open than many of their away games.

Logic points towards a tight contest, likely decided by fine margins rather than sustained dominance. Everton’s home advantage and marginally stronger attacking numbers give them a slight edge, but Sunderland’s organisation and flexibility make a draw a very realistic outcome. A narrow Everton win or a scoring draw looks the most probable scenario in what should be a cagey, hard-fought fixture with significant implications for who finishes in the top half.