CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round Preview

CSKA Sofia host Maccabi Tel Aviv at the National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round, with the tie finely poised psychologically after CSKA’s emphatic 3–0 away win in the first leg played in Batumi. Despite that dominant result, the market still prices this second leg as a relatively balanced contest, but the model and underlying numbers lean clearly towards the Bulgarians avoiding defeat.

Form Deep-Dive

(recent tournament form only) shows CSKA Sofia in outstanding shape. Their Europa League league-form string is WWDWW, meaning they are unbeaten in five matches with four wins and one draw. Across these five fixtures, they have scored 9 goals (1.8 per game) and conceded only 3 (0.6 per game). At home in this competition they have 2 wins from 2, scoring 4 and conceding 2, so the National Stadium Vasil Levski has been a productive base.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s Europa League league-form string is WWL from three matches. They opened with two wins before the heavy 0–3 loss to CSKA on neutral ground in Batumi. Their attack has still been efficient overall with 6 goals in 3 games (2.0 per match), but those numbers are skewed by a 5–0 away win; at “home” they have scored just 1 and conceded 3 in two fixtures. Defensively, they allow 1.0 goal per game on average in the competition, but again, all three goals conceded came in that defeat to CSKA.

Prediction Engine Comparison

The prediction engine’s comparison indices underline CSKA’s edge in overall performance. In the last-five window, CSKA’s form index is 87 against Maccabi’s 67, with attack 69 vs 46 and defense 77 vs 77, showing CSKA as the more balanced and consistent side. The broader comparison block gives CSKA a total index of 59.3 against 40.7 for Maccabi, and a form index of 68 vs 32, reinforcing that the Bulgarian side are trending better coming into this leg.

Head-to-Head Data

Head-to-head data is limited but highly relevant. There has been one official meeting, the first leg on 6 August 2026 at Batumi Arena, where Maccabi Tel Aviv were the designated home side and CSKA Sofia the away team. CSKA won 3–0, leading 2–0 at half-time and never really allowing Maccabi into the game. That result is reflected in the comparison’s head-to-head and goals indices, both reading 100 for CSKA and 0 for Maccabi. While one match is too small a sample for long-term conclusions, it does confirm that CSKA’s style and current form can trouble Maccabi significantly.

Probabilities Standpoint

From a probabilities standpoint, the official prediction model gives CSKA Sofia a 45% chance to win this match, the draw also at 45%, and Maccabi Tel Aviv only 10% to win. The advised betting angle from the model is “Double chance: CSKA Sofia or draw,” directly aligned with those probabilities and the “Win or draw” comment on the CSKA side.

Bookmakers’ Odds

The bookmakers’ odds for the 1X2 market are tighter than the model’s view. Home prices range from 2.23 to 2.41, implying roughly a 41–45% chance for a CSKA win. Draw odds sit between 2.98 and 3.40, implying about 29–34%. Away odds range from 2.73 to 3.14, implying around 32–37% for a Maccabi win. Compared to the prediction model (10% away win), the market is far more optimistic on Maccabi’s chances, suggesting potential value in opposing an away victory.

Given CSKA’s unbeaten Europa League run (4 wins, 1 draw), their strong defensive record (3 goals conceded in 5 matches, 3 clean sheets), and the psychological and tactical advantage of a 3–0 first-leg win, the data strongly supports CSKA avoiding defeat again. The bookmakers still price the home team only marginally shorter than Maccabi, leaving room for a solid safety-first angle.

Betting Verdict

The best-aligned play with both the official prediction and the statistical profile is the double chance on CSKA Sofia or draw (1X). For those seeking a slightly higher-risk, higher-reward position, a small stake on the straight CSKA Sofia home win is also justifiable, but the core recommendation remains to back CSKA Sofia or draw.