Crystal Palace vs Everton: Premier League Match Preview

Crystal Palace host Everton at Selhurst Park in a late-season Premier League clash where the market and the model both lean slightly towards the visitors, despite the home advantage. Palace sit 15th on 43 points after 34 matches (11-10-13, 36-42), while Everton are 10th with 48 points from 35 games (13-9-13, 44-44). The table positions and underlying metrics in the prediction model give Everton the stronger overall profile.

Over the last eight league matches (using the full form strings from the predictions data), both sides are inconsistent, but Everton carry more attacking threat. Palace’s league form string is long and mixed, but the snapshot of their last five from the predictions section shows 33% “form” with only 3 goals scored and 7 conceded (0.6 for, 1.4 against per game). That aligns with their season-long numbers: just 36 goals in 34 league fixtures (1.1 per game), and at home only 16 in 17 (0.9 per game). They have 7 home clean sheets but have also failed to score in 7 of 17 at Selhurst Park, underlining a low-tempo, low-scoring profile.

Everton’s last-five metrics are more aggressive: 10 goals scored and 9 conceded, averaging 2.0 for and 1.8 against. Across the league campaign they have 44 goals in 35 matches (1.3 per game) and concede at the same 1.3 rate. Away from home they are 7-4-6 with 19 scored and 20 conceded, again around 1.1 for and 1.2 against per match. The comparison module in the predictions data rates Everton significantly higher in attack (77% vs 23%) and also ahead on goals contribution (67% vs 33%), while Palace edge the defensive index (56% vs 44%). Overall, the model’s total comparison score is 64.8% Everton against 35.2% Palace, a clear tilt towards the away side on underlying strength.

Head-to-Head Data

Head-to-head data reinforces that tilt. In the Premier League on 2025-10-05 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton beat Crystal Palace 2-1, coming from 0-1 down at half-time. On 2025-02-15 at Selhurst Park in the Premier League, Everton again won 2-1 away. Earlier, on 2024-09-28 at Goodison Park in the Premier League, Everton won 2-1. On 2024-02-19 at Goodison Park in the Premier League, the sides drew 1-1. In cup competition, on 2024-01-17 at Goodison Park in the FA Cup 3rd Round Replay, Everton won 1-0 after leading 1-0 at half-time, while on 2024-01-04 at Selhurst Park in the FA Cup, the tie finished 0-0. Going further back in the Premier League, on 2023-11-11 at Selhurst Park Everton won 3-2, on 2023-04-22 at Selhurst Park it ended 0-0, on 2022-10-22 at Goodison Park Everton won 3-0, and on 2022-05-19 at Goodison Park they won 3-2. The pattern is that Everton have repeatedly found ways to score against Palace, both home and away, while several fixtures have still been tight on the scoreboard.

Prediction Model

The official prediction model gives Crystal Palace only a 10% win probability, with draw and Everton each at 45%. It explicitly recommends “Double chance: draw or Everton” and flags Everton as the “winner” in the sense of win-or-draw. That aligns strongly with the odds market. Across major bookmakers, Palace are roughly 2.64–2.91, Everton around 2.45–2.69, and the draw 3.00–3.35. The prices imply a near pick’em with a slight lean towards Everton, especially at firms where the away price is shorter than the home. Given the model’s 90% implied chance against a Palace win, the value lies on the side of opposing the home victory.

From a totals perspective, both teams have a strong bias towards low-scoring outcomes over the season (Everton over 2.5 in only 5 of 35; Palace over 2.5 in just 3 of 34), but their recent head-to-head league meetings often produced at least two goals. The prediction’s goals line (“home -1.5, away -2.5”) and the under/over profiles suggest a cautious expectation on goal volume rather than a shootout.

Betting Verdict

Betting verdict: the data and official advice converge on Everton not to lose. The most solid, model-aligned angle is:

• Primary bet: Double chance – Draw or Everton
• Correct-score lean: 1-1 or a narrow 1-2 Everton win, in a relatively tight game.