CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

CF Pachuca welcome Guadalajara Chivas to Estadio Miguel Hidalgo on 29 August 2026 in Liga MX Apertura - 6, with both sides heading into this clash on very different trajectories. Pachuca are struggling near the bottom of the early standings, while Chivas have started strongly and already look like serious play-off contenders.

Pachuca sit 14th with just 4 points from their first 5 matches, having lost 3 of those games and still searching for their first home point of the campaign. Chivas, by contrast, are 4th on 10 points, firmly inside the Apertura play-off picture and carrying solid momentum from recent wins.

This fixture also has a strong recent narrative: Chivas have dominated the head-to-head in the last few years, often winning in Pachuca as well as in Zapopan. With betting interest high around CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction, H2H trends and form lines point to a fascinating encounter in Pachuca de Soto.

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Key Stats

• Pachuca are 14th with 4 points from 5 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats, goal difference 7-7).
• Chivas have won the last 5 competitive meetings between the sides (from 13 April 2024 to 10 January 2026) in Liga MX.
• In 2026 Liga MX statistics, Pachuca average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Chivas average 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded.

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 14 vs 4
• Points: 4 vs 10
• Goals For: 7 vs 8
• Goals Against: 7 vs 5
• Clean Sheets: Pachuca 1 vs Chivas 2 (2026 Liga MX statistics)

The standings underline how differently these teams have started the Apertura. Pachuca’s 1 win from 5, coupled with a negative home record (2 defeats from 2 at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, 3 goals scored and 5 conceded), has left them in the bottom half and under pressure to respond in front of their own fans.

Chivas, meanwhile, are 4th with 3 wins, 1 draw and just 1 defeat from 5. They have been particularly solid away from home so far: unbeaten on the road with 1 win and 1 draw, scoring 2 and conceding only 1. Their goal difference of +3 reflects a more balanced side at both ends, and their current status is “Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)”, highlighting their early-season ambitions.

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Key Matchups

S. Rondón vs R. Alvarado

Two of Liga MX’s standout attacking performers so far in 2026 go head-to-head. For Pachuca, S. Rondón has been the main source of goals: 5 goals in 5 appearances, all starts, with 403 minutes played. He has taken 15 shots with 6 on target, converted a penalty, and carries a strong attacking rating of 7.52. His physical presence (186cm, 86kg) and ability to win duels (30 contested, 15 won) make him a constant threat in and around the box.

On the Chivas side, R. Alvarado has been one of the league’s most complete attacking midfielders/forwards. In 5 appearances (all starts, 360 minutes), he has scored 2 goals but also contributed heavily in build-up: 225 passes with 11 key passes and an impressive 89% accuracy, plus 16 dribble attempts with 9 successful. Defensively he works hard too, with 7 tackles, 1 block and 1 interception, and he draws plenty of fouls (10 won). His rating of 7.93 underlines how influential he has been in Chivas’ strong start.

O. Idrissi vs Chivas midfield unit

While Chivas do not have a listed top assist provider in this dataset, O. Idrissi stands out for Pachuca as a creative hub in midfield. In 5 appearances (411 minutes), he has 2 assists, 149 passes at 83% accuracy, and 6 key passes. He also offers ball progression through 23 dribble attempts with 10 successful, and contributes defensively with 8 tackles and significant duel involvement (59 duels, 27 won). His ability to link with S. Rondón will be crucial if Pachuca are to break down a Chivas side that has conceded only 5 goals in 5 matches and kept 2 clean sheets.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent meetings between CF Pachuca and Guadalajara Chivas have heavily favoured the Jalisco side, with Chivas consistently finding ways to win both home and away. Pachuca’s last recorded home victory in this fixture dates back to January 2022.

• 10 January 2026: Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
• 3 November 2025: CF Pachuca 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
• 23 February 2025: Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
• 19 October 2024: CF Pachuca 0-2 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
• 13 April 2024: CF Pachuca 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction

Form indicators and H2H history both lean towards Guadalajara Chivas. The prediction model gives Pachuca only a 10% chance of victory, with the draw and an away win each rated at 45 out of 100. Chivas are also backed strongly by comparison indices: they lead in form, defense and overall strength, while the Poisson index is heavily tilted in their favour.

Pachuca’s issues are primarily defensive at home, where they concede an average of 2.5 goals per game in 2026 league play. Chivas, by contrast, concede just 0.5 goals per game away and have already shown they can manage tight contests on the road. However, Pachuca do carry attacking threat through S. Rondón and the creativity of O. Idrissi, and they average 1.4 goals scored per match overall.

Given Chivas’ strong recent form (LWDWW in the league) and their dominant H2H run, they should avoid defeat here, but with 45% on the draw and 45% on the away win, this looks like a game that could be decided by fine margins. Expect Chivas to control large spells, with Pachuca relying on moments from their stars and set pieces.

Predicted Score: CF Pachuca 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas

CF Pachuca Recent Form

Pachuca’s recent form in the Apertura has been inconsistent and largely negative. They have managed just one win and one draw from five, with three defeats leaving them 14th. The form line “DLLLW” reflects a run that started with two losses and a draw, followed by another defeat before finally picking up a win. They score and concede at identical rates (1.4 per match), but their home record is particularly concerning: two straight losses, 3 goals scored and 5 conceded.

Guadalajara Chivas Recent Form

Chivas come into this fixture in much better shape, with a league form sequence of “WWDWL” in the standings context and “LWDWW” in the broader 2026 statistics. They have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 matches, and are unbeaten away from home (1 win, 1 draw, 2 goals scored, 1 conceded). Defensively they allow only 1.0 goal per match on average, and they have already recorded 2 clean sheets, underlining a well-organised unit.

CF Pachuca Possible Starting Lineup

GK: C. Moreno or J. Eulogio
Defenders: A. Mozo, Eduardo Bauermann, M. Isaís, F. Venegas
Midfielders: C. Rivera, R. Pizarro, O. Idrissi, Kenedy
Forwards: S. Rondón, I. Hernández

Pachuca’s squad list suggests a likely back line built around Eduardo Bauermann and M. Isaís, with A. Mozo offering attacking thrust from full-back. In midfield, the combination of C. Rivera’s defensive work and passing (167 passes at 88% accuracy, 18 tackles) with the creativity of O. Idrissi and R. Pizarro looks key. Up front, everything is likely to be geared towards supplying S. Rondón, whose 5 goals make him Pachuca’s main weapon. Expect a 4-2-3-1 shape, as indicated by their most-used formation in 2026 statistics.

Guadalajara Chivas Possible Starting Lineup

GK: J. Rangel
Defenders: M. Tapias, B. González, J. Castillo
Midfielders: L. Romo, O. Govea, R. González, B. Gutiérrez, R. Alvarado
Forwards: R. Marín, Á. Sepúlveda or J. Pérez

Chivas’ roster and 2026 statistics point towards a 3-1-4-2 base system, used in 4 matches. M. Tapias should anchor the back three, with B. González and J. Castillo alongside him. In midfield, L. Romo and O. Govea provide balance, while R. Alvarado operates as a key creative and goal threat between the lines. Up front, R. Marín could lead the line, with options such as Á. Sepúlveda or J. Pérez alongside. Chivas’ structure has delivered a solid defensive platform and efficient attack so far.

CF Pachuca Team News

No significant absences reported.

Guadalajara Chivas Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

CF Pachuca:

• None reported.

Guadalajara Chivas:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Guadalajara Chivas Draw No Bet. With win probabilities at 10% for Pachuca, 45% for the draw and 45% for Chivas, plus a dominant recent H2H record, siding with the away team with insurance against the draw makes sense. Chivas’ match-winner odds range from 2.20 to 2.45 across bookmakers, implying roughly 40.8% to 45.5% chance of an away win, in line with the prediction model.
• Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. Both teams’ averages (Pachuca 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded; Chivas 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded) and recent head-to-heads, which often finish with 2 goals or fewer, suggest a relatively controlled scoring environment. While specific under/over odds are not listed in the data, this angle aligns with their 2026 scoring profiles.
• Value Tip: Anytime goalscorer – S. Rondón. Pachuca’s striker has 5 goals in 5 matches and takes penalties (1 scored from 1), making him the clear focal point of their attack. With Chivas focused on limiting overall chances, Rondón’s combination of volume (15 shots, 6 on target) and set-piece duty offers potential value in goalscorer markets, even if exact prices are not provided here.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.