Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Atlético Ottawa welcome Supra du Quebec to TD Place Stadium on 20 September 2026 in a Canadian Premier League Group Stage clash that could prove pivotal at both ends of the table. Ottawa are pushing to consolidate a top-three position, while Supra are trying to claw their way out of the lower reaches and keep their campaign alive.

With Atlético Ottawa sitting 3rd on 34 points after 22 matches and Supra du Quebec down in 7th with 22 points from 21 games, the gap between these sides is already significant. Yet recent meetings have been anything but one-sided, and bettors looking for Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec prediction angles will note the mix of high-scoring encounters and narrow wins that have defined this matchup in 2026.

TD Place Stadium has been a stronghold for Ottawa this season, and the hosts know that another victory here would keep them firmly in the playoff picture. Supra, meanwhile, arrive with one of the league’s more unpredictable attacks but a leaky defence, making this fixture a fascinating test of Ottawa’s home solidity against Quebec’s volatility.

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec Key Stats

• Atlético Ottawa are 3rd in the Canadian Premier League with 34 points from 22 matches, winning 10 and scoring 34 goals while conceding 37.
• The last five head-to-head meetings in 2026 have all produced a winner on the day or a high-scoring draw, including a 5-3 home win for Atlético Ottawa on 9 June 2026 and a 3-3 draw in the Canadian Championship on 11 August 2026.
• From league statistics, Atlético Ottawa have kept 4 clean sheets compared to just 1 for Supra du Quebec, underlining the hosts’ relative defensive edge.

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 3 vs 7
• Points: 34 vs 22
• Goals For: 34 vs 29
• Goals Against: 37 vs 38
• Clean Sheets: Atlético Ottawa 4 (tournament statistics) vs Supra du Quebec 1 (tournament statistics)

In the standings, Atlético Ottawa clearly hold the upper hand. They have 12 more points than Supra du Quebec and have played one game more, reflecting a more consistent campaign. Ottawa’s overall record of 10 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats from 22 matches is underpinned by a strong home record: 7 wins, 3 draws and just 1 loss at TD Place Stadium, with 21 goals scored and 13 conceded across 11 home fixtures.

Supra du Quebec, by contrast, have struggled for stability. With 6 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses from 21 matches, they sit 7th and have conceded 38 goals. Their away numbers are mixed: 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, scoring 18 and conceding 21. Both sides concede at around 1.7–1.8 goals per game, but Ottawa’s ability to turn home advantage into points is a major differentiator in this matchup.

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec Key Matchups

B. Tabla vs L. Kwemi

Ballou Jean-Yves Tabla is one of Atlético Ottawa’s primary attacking threats. Across 22 appearances (21 starts), he has scored 5 goals and provided 1 assist, with a solid 7.04 rating. He is efficient in front of goal, with 19 shots and 13 on target, and contributes in build-up play with 278 passes at 85% accuracy and 9 key passes. His dribbling (26 attempts, 12 successful) and 25 fouls drawn underline how often he destabilises defences.

For Supra du Quebec, Loïc Adrien Kwemi is the focal point in attack. In 19 appearances (15 starts), he has also scored 5 goals, adding 2 penalties converted, with a 7.05 rating. He has 22 shots (11 on target), 210 passes at 81% accuracy and 13 key passes, while winning 45 of 107 duels and attempting 52 dribbles (24 successful). This duel pits Ottawa’s main forward threat against Supra’s most complete attacking outlet, and whichever of Tabla or Kwemi finds more space could swing the result.

N. Fleuriau Chateau vs D. Choinière

Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau offers Ottawa an additional attacking edge. In just 9 appearances (7 starts), he has 3 goals and 2 assists, with a 7.06 rating. Despite limited minutes (368), he has 14 shots, 6 on target, and 3 key passes, showing a knack for end-product. His presence gives Ottawa a second line of scoring behind Tabla.

On the other side, David Choinière is a key creative midfielder for Supra du Quebec. Over 20 appearances (16 starts), he has delivered 4 assists and created 19 key passes from 305 total passes at 86% accuracy. While he has yet to score, his ability to progress the ball, dribble (14 attempts, 7 successful) and draw fouls (10) makes him vital to linking midfield and attack. The contrast between Fleuriau Chateau’s direct goal threat and Choinière’s playmaking will be central to how each side builds chances.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides have already produced a compelling series of encounters in 2026 across league and cup, with goals a regular feature and momentum swinging back and forth.

• 16 August 2026: Supra du Quebec 1-2 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Premier League)
• 11 August 2026: Atlético Ottawa 3-3 Supra du Quebec (Canadian Championship)
• 8 July 2026: Supra du Quebec 3-1 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Championship)
• 9 June 2026: Atlético Ottawa 5-3 Supra du Quebec (Canadian Premier League)
• 19 April 2026: Supra du Quebec 0-1 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Premier League)

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced but open contest. The prediction model gives Atlético Ottawa a 45% chance of winning, with a 45% probability of a draw and only 10% for a Supra du Quebec victory. That aligns with the league table and Ottawa’s formidable home record, but the head-to-head series warns against complacency: Supra have already beaten Ottawa 3-1 in the Canadian Championship and held them 3-3 away.

Recent form tilts toward the hosts. Ottawa’s last-five index shows 47 in overall form, with balanced attack and defence (44 and 56), scoring and conceding 7 in that span. Supra’s last-five form index is just 27, with 6 scored and 9 conceded. Ottawa also boast more clean sheets (4 vs 1) and have been particularly strong late in games, with a large share of their goals scored between minutes 61–90, while Supra concede heavily in the final quarter of an hour.

Given the goals trends — both teams averaging around 1.4–1.5 scored and 1.7–1.8 conceded per game, plus several high-scoring H2Hs — another match with chances at both ends is likely. However, with Ottawa’s home strength and a clear edge in defensive reliability, they are favoured to edge it, though the high draw probability suggests a tight scoreline rather than a rout.

Predicted Score: Atlético Ottawa 2-1 Supra du Quebec

Atlético Ottawa Recent Form

Atlético Ottawa’s recent form in the Canadian Premier League has been mixed but trending positive. Their recorded sequence “LDWLW” over the latest five league matches shows a team capable of bouncing back quickly from setbacks, with three wins and two defeats in that stretch. Combined with a season-long pattern of strong home performances, Ottawa arrive in relatively good shape.

Supra du Quebec Recent Form

Supra du Quebec’s recent run reads “LLWDL”, reflecting inconsistency and defensive frailty. Two consecutive losses, a single win, a draw and another defeat over their last five league games underline why they sit 7th. While they can score — averaging 1.4 goals per match — their tendency to concede late and lack of clean sheets (just one all season) are ongoing concerns.

Atlético Ottawa Possible Starting Lineup

GK: T. Crampton; Defenders: J. Dunn-Johnson, Sergei Kozlovskiy, W. Timóteo; Midfielders: M. Aparicio, D. Gutiérrez, G. Antinoro, K. Habibullah; Forwards: B. Tabla, N. Fleuriau Chateau, E. García.

Atlético Ottawa have a deep squad with multiple defensive options such as J. Dunn-Johnson and Sergei Kozlovskiy, supported by experienced midfielders like M. Aparicio and D. Gutiérrez. In attack, the combination of B. Tabla, N. Fleuriau Chateau and E. García offers a blend of pace, dribbling and finishing. Ottawa have used several formations this season, including 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1, and are flexible enough to adjust shape depending on game state while maintaining a strong attacking core.

Supra du Quebec Possible Starting Lineup

With no detailed squad list provided, only key players can be highlighted: L. Kwemi leading the line, supported by creative midfielders D. Choinière and S. Rea, and defensive figures such as D. Abzi, C. Auguste and M. Chretien.

Supra du Quebec have primarily lined up in a 4-2-3-1 shape this season. The back line often features aggressive full-backs like D. Abzi, who contributes in attack but also collects many cards, and central defenders including M. Chretien and C. Auguste. In midfield, the technical quality of S. Rea and D. Choinière is crucial for supplying Kwemi and secondary forwards such as I. Conde. The structure is designed to get numbers forward, but the high defensive line and card-prone defenders can leave them exposed, particularly away from home.

Atlético Ottawa Team News

No significant absences reported.

Supra du Quebec Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Atlético Ottawa:

• None reported.

Supra du Quebec:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Atlético Ottawa Draw No Bet or Double Chance (Atlético Ottawa or Draw). With a 45% win probability for Ottawa and 45% for the draw versus just 10% for a Supra win, plus Ottawa’s 7 wins and only 1 loss at home, the safer angle is to side with the hosts while covering the stalemate. (No odds available in the current data.)
• Goals Tip: Both Teams to Score – Yes. Ottawa average 1.5 goals for and 1.7 against per match, while Supra average 1.4 for and 1.8 against. Recent head-to-heads include scorelines of 5-3, 3-3, 3-1 and 2-1, all featuring goals for both sides. This profile strongly supports a BTTS angle. (No odds available in the current data.)
• Value Tip: Anytime Goalscorer – B. Tabla. With 5 goals and 1 assist in 22 appearances, 13 shots on target from 19 attempts and a central role in Ottawa’s attack, Tabla is a logical candidate to score against a defence that has conceded 38 goals and kept just 1 clean sheet all season. (No odds available in the current data.)

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.